Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath for
Sunday, February 18, 2024
The avalanche danger is MODERATE. Human triggered avalanches 3'-6' deep, failing on a buried persistent weak layer remain possible on steep slopes that face W-N-E-SE with the greatest danger existing on slopes facing NW-N-E. Although the odds of triggering a deep and dangerous avalanche are decreasing, the consequences remain the same.
There may be a few shallow slabs of wind drifted snow lurking about on all aspects above treeline. Fresh drifts generally have a smooth rounded appearance and cracking is a sign of instability. Older, stiff slabs may sound or feel hollow underneath.

A generally LOW danger exists on slopes facing S-SW.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
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Special Announcements
It was great to meet some new Moab locals and to pass along information to out of town visitors at our Trailhead Avalanche Awareness Program yesterday!
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Road Conditions: The Geyser Pass Road is plowed but snowpacked and slick!
Grooming: Gold Basin was packed out again yesterday.
Weather and Snow
6:00 a.m. Snow and Weather Data
24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow T" Season Total Snow 131" Depth at Gold Basin 50"
Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: SW 15-20 G30 Temp 24° Percent of Normal: 105%

Weather
Winds from the SW picked up around 5:00 a.m. after relative calm for the past 24 hours. This is in response to a fast moving short wave trough that will pass quickly through the area today bringing mostly cloudy skies and a slight chance for a burst of heavy snow. By afternoon it will be all over and we should see clearing skies that last through Monday as a transient ridge builds over the area. Unsettled weather begins on Tues as a messy Atmospheric River noses into the region.
General Conditions
In our travels yesterday we continued to find excellent settled powder conditions on sheltered, low angle, northerly facing terrain below treeline. You can also find a full range of snow surfaces out there on sun or wind affected slopes (see this observation from visiting Arizona Snow Bowl ski patroller Eric Roberts, and this observation from snow pro Chris Benson). Shifting winds over the last couple of days have transported snow and built some shallow stiff slabs along the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain. Keep an eye out for those today if you are in the high country. Our primary concern however, remains the persistent weak layer of faceted snow at the base of the snowpack. Although the likelihood is decreasing, deep and dangerous avalanches failing on this layer are still possible on slopes facing W-N-E-SE, with the greatest likelihood existing on steep, wind loaded, northerly facing terrain. Over in Colorado, where they have a similar snowpack, people are triggering avalanches daily down to this weak layer, sometimes after multiple runs on the same slope. Likely trigger points include thinner snowpack areas along slope margins, near rocky outcrops, or in areas of steep, rocky, radical terrain.
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin Storm Stake (10,000')
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
It's no secret that we have a persistent weak layer of faceted snow at the base of the snowpack on W-N-E-SE aspects, and that this layer produced numerous deep avalanches during the stormy period between Feb 2-8. As the dust settles so to speak, human triggered avalanches failing on this weak layer are becoming less likely but the results remain potentially deadly. In my travels on Saturday, I dug at lower elevations where the snowpack is shallow and continued to have reactive stability tests. Low elevations aren't the only places with a shallow snowpack and these are the areas where you are most likely to trigger an avalanche. You really need to do your homework before committing to anything steep. Dig, probe, avoid areas that are less than about 180-200 cms deep. Avoid steep, rocky terrain, thinner areas along slope margins, and steep, blind roll overs or convexities. These are all likely trigger points.
Here's how Dave is handling the current situation:
"I am continuing to evaluate the snow and terrain carefully. I am slowly biting off pieces of terrain. Nibbling at the edges before I go all in. I am probing the snowpack to be sure that I am skiing in areas with deep snow. I am ok with some overhead hazard, but I am generally keeping my slope angles low. I am choosing terrain that has gradual transitions and I am avoiding complex terrain with terrain traps and cliff bands. Remember that during moderate danger with a PWL, deep and dangerous human-triggered avalanches remain possible."
In the snowpit below, dug on a NE aspect at 10,000', an extended column test produced results of ECTP26 on weak faceted snow at the base of the snowpack. This tells us that although stubborn, we have propagation, therefore we can still trigger an avalanche, particularly in shallow snowpack areas such as this. I also found a reactive layer of surface hoar in this snowpit 22 cms down. This isn't widespread so I've taken it out of the discussion, but it's interesting nevertheless. See my observation for more details.
Extended column test results of ECTP26 failing on the basal facets. This is somewhat stubborn but it illustrates that deep avalanches remain possible, especially in shallow snowpack areas. HS or Height of Snow is snowgeek speak for total depth.
Additional Information
Want some more insight into the La Sal Mountains as well as the communal impacts of a tragic avalanche? Check out the latest UAC podcast with forecaster Eric Trenbeath where he discusses the range, it's often treacherous snowpack, and how the devastating avalanche in February, 1992, affected the Moab community.
Our avalanche beacon checker sign and beacon training park are up and running. A huge thanks to Talking Mountain Yurts for sponsoring those this season!
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General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.