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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed for
Thursday, March 16, 2023
There's CONSIDERABLE danger on drifted upper and mid elevation slopes today, where people are likely to trigger large cornice falls and/or 1 to 3-foot-deep slab avalanches of recently wind drifted snow. Elevated conditions persist at lower elevations where wet avalanches are possible in the warmth of the day.
Make conservative choices and evaluate snow and terrain carefully.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
The UAC is currently working with the operation involved in last Thursday's fatal avalanche in the Uintas to prepare a report. Please be patient as we sort out the details of this complicated incident. A preliminary report is available HERE.
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Weather and Snow
Overnight temperatures dropped well below freezing and the surface of the rain saturated snow at lower elevations is solidifying. Around a foot of heavy new snow accumulated on upper elevation slopes with this week's storm, drifted by southwest and westerly winds. Expect to find dangerous conditions in drifted terrain, with avalanches of wind drifted snow, 1 to 3 feet deep and more than 100' wide likely. People should stay well away from and out from under huge and unstable cornices on the ridge-lines.
The 8400' Tony Grove Snotel reports 11 inches of heavy new snow from yesterday's warm and windy storm. It's 14° F this morning, and there is 133 inches of total snow. The wind is blowing from the north-northwest around 15 mph at the 9700' CSI Logan Peak weather station.

Here is the NWS point forecast for high elevations in the Central Bear River Range:
Today: Sunny, with a high near 26. Wind chill values as low as -1. Northeast wind 10 to 13 mph.
Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 8. Wind chill values as low as -8. East wind 9 to 14 mph.
Friday:Sunny, with a high near 27. Wind chill values as low as -6. East southeast wind 8 to 14 mph

We'll see fair weather and sun through the weekend and clouds with snow showers for the first half of next week.
Recent Avalanches
  • Large natural wet avalanches were widespread at lower elevations in the Logan Zone yesterday, spawned by warmth and a significant amount of rain-on-snow. We could see evidence of some natural activity in drifted terrain up higher in the Bear River River Range yesterday evening.
  • A natural wet avalanche hit Highway 89 at the Dugway in Logan Canyon early Wednesday morning. report is HERE
  • For a list of avalanches in the Logan Zone go HERE
  • It was a bit more active in the Wasatch Range yesterday. Find a list of all recent observations & avalanches from across Utah HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Avalanches of wind drifted snow, 1 to 3 feet thick, are likely for people to trigger in windy terrain at upper and mid elevations. Natural avalanches are possible.
  • Avoid corniced slopes and stiffer drifts on steep slopes near ridges and in and around terrain features like cliff bands, sub-ridges, mid-slope break-overs, and gully walls.
  • The overhanging cornices on the high peaks and ridges have become huge with recent storms, so its a good idea to continue to stay well away and out from under them.
  • Avalanches of wind drifted snow failing on a persistent weak layer buried 1 to 3 feet deep are possible, and some might be triggered remotely or from a distance.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
  • Despite clearing and cold overnight temperatures, human triggered loose wet avalanches remain possible on lower elevation slopes during the heat of midday.
  • More than normal snow cover exists even at very low elevations, and snow becomes unstable as it is saturated and loosened up by warmth and rain.
  • Loose avalanches of saturated snow could entrain large piles of very heavy snow and they threaten lower elevation trails, access roads, and some of my favorite fishing holes down on the river.
Additional Information
General Announcements
  • Please submit your observations from the backcountry HERE.
  • For a list of avalanche classes from the Utah Avalanche Center go HERE
  • For information on where you can ride your sled or snowbike, check out this map of the winter travel plan for the Logan and Ogden Ranger Districts HERE, and a close up of the Tony Grove and Franklin Basin Areas HERE.
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.