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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed for
Monday, March 13, 2023
Heightened conditions and MODERATE danger are found at all elevations on backcountry slopes steeper than 30°. Avalanches are possible on drifted upper and mid elevation slopes, where people could trigger large cornice falls and/or 1 to 3-foot-thick slab avalanches. Loose wet avalanches are possible on lower elevation slopes as the snow is softened by daytime warmth, sun, or rain.

Elevated avalanche conditions exist at all elevations, so evaluate snowpack and terrain carefully.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
The UAC is currently working with the operation involved in Thursday's fatal avalanche in the Uintas to prepare a report. Please be patient as we sort out the details of this complicated incident. A preliminary report is available HERE.
Please consider donating to the spring campaign to help our team implement innovative tools and better provide you with the information you rely on.
Weather and Snow
Last week's fine powder conditions are now just a memory, and conditions are completely different this week. Heightened avalanche conditions are found in the backcountry, especially in windy terrain, and people need to pay close attention to signs of instability like cracking or collapsing. Colder temperatures overnight probably helped with the wet avalanche problem at lower elevations by freezing up the saturated snow, but warm daytime temperatures, rain or even sun could soften up the snow and revive the concern. Although melting fast, there is snow at very low elevations this year, and we are seeing avalanches on slopes that don't normally have enough snow. Loose wet avalanches could entrain large piles of heavy snow and be a significant risk, especially with terrain traps below steep slopes.

The 8400' Tony Grove Snotel reports 27° F this morning, and there is 131 inches of total snow. The wind is blowing from the southwest 18 mph at the 9700' CSI Logan Peak weather station.

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Warning for the Logan Zone starting tomorrow night and extending through Wednesday night. We are at a point in the season where direct action avalanches are the rule, and large natural avalanche events occur almost weekly, during each storm. The avalanches are caused by heavy snowfall, drifting from strong winds, and/or rain on snow.
Here is the NWS point forecast for high elevations in the Central Bear River Range:
Today: A chance of snow showers before noon, then a chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. South southwest wind 7 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. South wind 7 to 10 mph.
Tuesday: A chance of rain and snow showers before noon, then rain showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 45. South wind 13 to 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
Recent Avalanches
  • Yesterday, we observed evidence of widespread natural avalanche activity from Friday's warm and windy storm across the Logan Zone.
  • For a list of avalanches in the Logan Zone go HERE
  • It was a bit more active in the Wasatch Range yesterday. Find a list of all recent observations & avalanches from across Utah HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Avalanches of wind drifted snow, 1 to 3 feet thick, are more likely for people to trigger in windy terrain at upper elevations. Drifting of Friday's heavy snow built out already huge cornices and created thick new wind slabs...
  • People could trigger shallow soft slab or loose avalanches on slopes steeper than 30° at mid and upper elevations, even in sheltered terrain.
  • Avoid corniced slopes and stiffer drifts on steep slopes near ridges and in and around terrain features like cliff bands, sub-ridges, mid-slope break-overs, and gully walls.
  • The overhanging cornices on the high peaks and ridges have become huge with recent storms, so its a good idea to continue to stay well away and out from under them.
  • Avalanches of wind drifted snow failing on a persistent weak layer are possible and might be triggered remotely or from a distance.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Cooler temperatures and clouds will help with this problem today, but more than normal snow cover exists even at very low elevations and in most areas it was saturated and loosened up by rain on Friday. Loose avalanches of saturated snow remain possible on steep slopes at lower elevations during the heat of the day.
Additional Information
Natural avalanches were widespread across the Logan Zone during the warm and windy storm on Friday. Here's a look at some evidence in the Wellsville Range as seen under a setting moon.
Widespread natural avalanches occurred across the zone with Friday's storm, including some gouging wet loose avalanches, very large cornice falls, and 1 to 2' deep wind/storm slabs, hundreds of feet wide.
General Announcements
  • Please submit your observations from the backcountry HERE.
  • For a list of avalanche classes from the Utah Avalanche Center go HERE
  • For information on where you can ride your sled or snowbike, check out this map of the winter travel plan for the Logan and Ogden Ranger Districts HERE, and a close up of the Tony Grove and Franklin Basin Areas HERE.
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.