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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed for
Wednesday, January 30, 2019
LOW: The snow is stable on most slopes and avalanches are unlikely in the backcountry. Even so, you might trigger avalanches involving wind drifted or wet snow in some places. Dangerous 3-feet-deep hard slab avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer remain possible on isolated very steep slopes, so avoid previously drifted, shallow, rocky slopes with poor snow structure. You can find really nice, smooth and fast riding conditions in the Logan Zone, with the best snow on lower angled slopes, and in shady sheltered terrain.
Use normal caution and practice safe backcountry travel protocols.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
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Learn how to read the forecast here
Weather and Snow
Despite wind damage up high and crusts on sunny slopes and down low, we've found very nice smooth, fast, and stable snow in the backcountry in the past couple days. A Low danger does not mean No danger, and you could still trigger avalanches, so you need to continue to follow safe backcountry travel protocols. Avoid wind drifted snow at upper elevations, large cornices that have formed in the last month on some of the major ridges, and steep sunny slopes in the middle of the day.
The Tony Grove Snotel at 8400' reports 21º F this morning and there's 57" of total snow containing 88% of average SWE for the date. It's 19º F, at the 9700' CSI Logan Peak weather station, and west-southwest winds are currently averaging around 20 mph.
High pressure aloft over the west coast will slowly shift east into the interior west by late week. A series of storm systems will cross the area for the weekend and early part of next week. Today it'll be sunny in the mountains, high temperatures at 8500' around 27º F, and 5 to 10 mph southwest wind. Tonight will be partly cloudy with low temperatures around 10º F, and 5 to 10 mph west-southwest wind. Tomorrow will be mostly sunny, with high temperature around 31º F, and 5 to 10 mph southwest wind. It looks like a stormy weekend coming, with snow in the mountains, perhaps some rain in Cache Valley, beginning around Saturday morning.
Recent Avalanches
Other than the natural cornice fall avalanche off the Magog Cornice last weekend, no avalanches were reported recently in the Logan Zone.
There were numerous close calls and lucky outcomes across Utah in January, including several in the Logan Zone. Sadly, we have two recent fatalities to report, both from the Manti La Sal National Forest.
-A snowmobile rider was killed Friday, 1/25/18, in the La Sal Mountains near Moab.... updated accident report HERE
-A backcountry skier was buried by an avalanche and killed near Fairview on 1/18/19. .. report is HERE.
Here is footage of an explosive triggered avalanche in the La Sal Mountains. The avalanche was intentionally triggered to protect rescue and recovery operations on the site of Friday's fatality.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Normal Caution
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
  • You might trigger slabs made up of wind drifted snow on very steep slopes in exposed upper and mid elevation terrain.
  • Overhanging cornices have grown large on some of the major ridges. These can break further back than expected. Stay off and out from under cornices during midday warmth and if there is any drifting going on.
  • Loose wet avalanches are possible in the middle of the day on steep sunny slopes with melt-softened saturated snow.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Dangerous hard slab avalanches failing on a persistent weak layer are unlikely yet possible for people to trigger on very steep drifted rocky slopes with shallow cover and poor snow structure. There is low probability that you could trigger a dangerous, high consequence, 3-feet-deep hard slab avalanche failing on a buried persistent weak layer. Mid-pack weak layers developed during the New Years cold spell, and shallow snow in many areas is loose, sugary, and faceted throughout. Frost or feathery surface hoar and small-grained near surface facets plague the snow surface on many slopes currently, and will likely become persistent weak layers after buried by the next storm.
Chains of well developed, loose faceted snow. Weak sugary snow like this is widespread in the Logan Zone in places where the snow is less than about a meter deep.
Additional Information
I will update this forecast Friday morning.
The new weather station at the WSU Bloomington Canyon Yurt is up and running. Data available HERE
Now is a great time to practice companion rescue techniques with your backcountry partners. You should check out and use the new Avalanche Beacon Training Park we set up at the Franklin Basin trailhead. Special thanks to Northstars Ultimate Outdoors and USU Outdoor Program for helping us to make this possible.
General Announcements
The Beaver Mountain Backside is the backcountry, and it is avalanche terrain. If you cross the ski area boundary, you and your partners should carry and practice with avalanche rescue equipment.
Check out the improved weather links, road conditions, and weather links for each forecast region on the new UAC IOS App. Do you use the NOAA point forecast? If so, now you can bookmark your favorite weather locations in "My Weather" in the App. HERE
Are you new to the backcountry or looking to refresh your skills? The UAC has released a free 5-part avalanche skills eLearning series. HERE
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This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. The forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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