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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed for
Monday, January 28, 2019
MODERATE: Heightened avalanche conditions persist in the backcountry, and you could trigger avalanches consisting of wind drifted snow in some upper elevation terrain. Dangerous 3-feet-deep hard slab avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer are unlikely yet remain possible on isolated very steep slopes. Avoid drifted rocky slopes with shallow cover and poor snow structure. You can find nice riding and safer conditions with mostly stable snow on lower angled slopes, at lower elevations, and in sheltered terrain.
Use normal caution and continue to evaluate snow and terrain carefully.
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Weather and Snow
Drifting from northwest winds created heightened conditions on some upper elevation slopes, and you might trigger avalanches consisting of wind drifted snow. Dangerous hard slab avalanches failing on a persistent weak layer are unlikely yet possible for people to trigger on drifted rocky slopes with shallow cover and poor snow structure. Stability has also improved on lower elevation slopes, where cold temperatures solidified rain-saturated snow. We've found nice snow and stable conditions in sheltered areas, on lower angled slopes, and at lower elevations.
The Tony Grove Snotel at 8400' reports 23º F this morning and there's 58" of total snow containing 90% of average SWE for the date. It's 14º F, at the 9700' CSI Logan Peak weather station, and northwest winds are currently averaging around 20 mph, with gusts to 47 mph.
A weak weather disturbance moving southeast out of western Canada will cross northeast Utah and southwest Wyoming this morning. A mostly dry and stable northwest flow aloft will follow through midweek. Today it may snow a bit then become mostly sunny in the mountains, high temperatures at 8500' around 23º F, and 15 to 20 mph north winds. Tonight will be mostly clear with low temperatures around 7º F, and 5 to 10 mph west-northwest wind. Tomorrow will be mostly sunny, with high temperature around 26º F, and 5 to 15 mph west-northwest wind, veering from the north in the afternoon.
Recent Avalanches
It's been over a week since we've seen natural avalanche activity in the Logan Zone and no new avalanches were reported despite lots of traffic in the backcountry this weekend.
There were numerous close calls and lucky outcomes across Utah in January, including several in the Logan Zone. Sadly, we have two recent fatalities to report, both from the Manti La Sal National Forest.
-A snowmobile rider was killed Friday, 1/25/18, in the La Sal Mountains near Moab.... report HERE
-A backcountry skier was buried by an avalanche and killed near Fairview on 1/18/19. .. report is HERE.
Here is footage of an explosive triggered avalanche in the La Sal Mountains. The avalanche was intentionally triggered to protect rescue and recovery operations on the site of Friday's fatality.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Wind drifted snow is causing heightened avalanche conditions in exposed upper and mid elevation terrain. Triggered wind slab avalanches, 1 to 2-feet-deep are possible in some areas.
Wind slab avalanches involve drifts ranging from very soft to very hard. Soft, fresh wind slabs are often quite sensitive to triggering. You usually can trigger one from the top, and they are generally manageable. Hard wind slabs can be tricky, sometimes allowing people to get out on then before releasing.
  • Wind slabs are smooth and rounded looking drifts on steep slopes, and they sometimes make hollow drum-like sounds when you move around on a harder one.
  • Avoid stiffer drifts in and around terrain features like sub ridges, cliff bands, stringers, scoops, and gullies.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Mid-pack weak layers developed during the New Years cold spell, and shallow snow in many areas is loose, sugary, and faceted. Hard slab avalanches, around 3-feet-deep and failing on buried persistent weak layers, could be remote triggered on steep slopes with poor snow structure, meaning you might trigger one from a distance, or below. The weak faceted snow will cause some very steep slopes in the backcountry to be unstable as they only gradually adjust to the recent new snow and drifting. The sugary snow will remain weak, but with little load in the past week, stability on most slopes is increasing. So, there is low probability that you could trigger a dangerous high consequence avalanche.
Chains of well developed, loose faceted snow. Weak sugary snow like this is widespread in the Beaver Creek Canyon Area in places where the snow is less than about a meter deep.
Additional Information
I will update this forecast Wednesday morning.
Now is a great time to practice companion rescue techniques with your backcountry partners. You should check out and use the new Avalanche Beacon Training Park we set up at the Franklin Basin trailhead. Special thanks to Northstars Ultimate Outdoors and USU Outdoor Program for helping us to make this possible.
General Announcements
The Beaver Mountain Backside is the backcountry, and it is avalanche terrain. If you cross the ski area boundary, you and your partners should carry and practice with avalanche rescue equipment.
Check out the improved weather links, road conditions, and weather links for each forecast region on the new UAC IOS App. Do you use the NOAA point forecast? If so, now you can bookmark your favorite weather locations in "My Weather" in the App. HERE
Are you new to the backcountry or looking to refresh your skills? The UAC has released a free 5-part avalanche skills eLearning series. HERE
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This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. The forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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