Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Skyline Area Mountains Issued by Craig Gordon for Saturday - March 14, 2015 - 5:58am
bottom line

The avalanche danger will rise to CONSIDERABLE on steep slopes facing the north half of the compass and human triggered avalanches are probable during the heat of the day. Any slide triggered today has the potential to break deep and wide, creating a dangerous slide.

The danger of wet avalanches will rise to MODERATE on slopes facing the south half of the compass. You'll want to get off of and out from under steep, sunny slopes as they become soggy or punchy feeling.

Most other terrain offers a LOW avalanche danger.
special announcement

Very warm temperatures are expected today and avalanche danger will spike with daytime heating. Pardon the windy conditions... but here's the setup.
current conditions

Skies are clear, temperatures in the low to mid 30's, and winds are light and variable, blowing just 5-15 mph along the summit. It's a little rugged out there, particularly in the morning when there's lots of hard, frozen tracks. However, don't get discouraged at the trailheads... riding and turning conditions remain quite good, especially on upper elevation slopes facing the north half of the compass where you'll still find soft, creamy snow on a go-anywhere kinda base.

Surprisingly good coverage is found in the upper elevation terrain, despite the lack of snowfall this season.
recent activity

Avalanches were triggered everywhere in the past few days... even in the trees where we don't usually see slides! The common theme is steep, rocky terrain, facing the north half of the compass.

Click here for a list of recent avalanche activity.
Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

The Skyline experienced a significant storm last week and a widespread avalanche cycle.... cause and effect, it makes sense right? Now the second half of the one-two punch is slated to arrive today as temperatures are forecast to soar into the upper 40's and the terrain facing the north half of the compass gets its first taste of spring-time warmth. Slopes that avalanched in December are especially suspect as they have a VERY shallow and weak snowpack. This is a dangerous situation because you can travel on a variety of slopes without triggering slides or seeing any obvious signs of instability. Problem is.... once triggered, today's avalanches have the potential to break deep and wide, especially in steep, rocky terrain.

This is the kind of terrain where you could trigger a deep, dangerous slide today.

Here's a great viddy Trent produced explaining the kind of avalanche dragon we're dealing with-

Persistent Slab Avalanches from Trent Meisenheimer on Vimeo.
Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

The danger of wet avalanche activity on steep sunny slopes will rise with daytime heating. It's pretty straight-forward though. When the snow is feeling damp and gloppy, simply get off of and out from under steep, sun baked slopes. In addition, you'll want to avoid terrain traps like gullies and road cuts where bone snapping, cement-like debris can pile up very deeply.
weather

Warm and windy with increasing clouds throughout the day. Highs reach into the upper 40's and low 50's, with overnight lows barely freezing. Southerly winds ramp up into the 20's and 30's by days end. Cloudy for Sunday and cooling trend is slated for early in the week. We might see an inch or two of snow midweek, before warm and dry weather returns for the second half of the week.
general announcements

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The information in this advisory is from the US Forest Service which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

This advisory will be updated by 7:00 AM Saturday, March 21, 2015 or sooner if conditions warrant.