Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Provo Area Mountains Issued by Brett Kobernik for Thursday - December 4, 2014 - 7:08am
bottom line

Most terrain has a LOW avalanche danger. A MODERATE danger exists in the highest northwest through east facing terrain where you may find some sensitive fresh wind drifts or the chance for triggering a persistent slab avalanche. Continue to evaluate the upper elevation terrain and snowpack carefully.
current conditions

The mountains received a trace to a couple of inches of high density snow on Wednesday. Rain/snow lines were around 8000 feet. The new snow was drifting a bit along the more exposed locations. Overnight, temperatures remain mild with most stations coming in around freezing and only into the mid 20s along the 10000 foot locations. Winds bumped up in speed slightly but still only in the moderate range from a west southwest direction.

There's been a big change to the snowpack with the recent warm temperatures. It is basically wet from the ground to the surface on all aspects up to around 9000 feet. During field work on Wednesday we found the basal facets moist and non-reactive in tests at 9700 feet. Others found similar conditions but were able to get full propagation after being quite forceful. Below are a couple of good observations describing the change that's occurring. While I can't say much for the riding conditions, at least the basal facets are going through a change for the better. The caveat is we will want to continue to watch these facets in the highest terrain. Continued warm temperatures forecast for about a week to come should encourage further settlement and rounding of these weak grains.

Salt Lake 12/3/2014 Observation: Cardiff Fork Josh Beckner Details
Salt Lake 12/3/2014 Observation: Meadows mark white Details

Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

While there is little chance you could trigger a persistent slab avalanche below 9500 feet, most folks are still a little leery of the highest more northerly aspects. We would love to see some observations from this high terrain, so, if you get a chance to safely look at the snowpack on northerly terrain above 10,000 feet, let everyone know what you're seeing by SUBMITTING A BACKCOUNTRY OBSERVATION. (Thank You!)
Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

If you're up along the highest ridgelines, you may find some fresh drifts that might crack out. These won't pose much threat unless you get taken off guard in exposed terrain where you may get flushed over rocks or through trees.
weather

We'll see clouds and the chance for some snow flurries today without much accumulation expected. The rain/snow line will once again be quite high (near 8000') with continued mild temperatures. There's a break on Friday then another weak disturbance into Saturday will again bring some minor snow accumulations and continued mild temperatures. Warm temperatures will continue and the GFS weather model predicts they'll get even warmer in the middle of next week.