Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Provo Area Mountains Issued by Brett Kobernik for Tuesday - November 19, 2013 - 7:48am
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The avalanche danger is MODERATE right now on northerly facing slopes above around 9000 feet steeper than 35 degrees. This means natural avalanches are unlikely and HUMAN TRIGGERED AVALANCHES ARE POSSIBLE. If you choose to poke around in these areas, don't be surprised if something pulls out.
current conditions

Mild weather started on Sunday and continued through Monday with ridgetop highs near 40 or better. Southwest winds picked up in speed starting late yesterday afternoon with some strong gusts overnight and are blowing in the moderate range now. Temperatures remained very mild overnight but are decreasing now and are around 30 along the ridges.

UDOT forecaster Bill Nalli put it well about snow cover in the Provo mountains: "Travel to these areas is still very challenging, requiring lots of dry land travel to thin snow cover. "
recent activity

Reports of avalanches over the weekend continue to slowly trickle in with some evidence of some natural activity from during the storm (Naturals in Cascade) as well as the most recent report of an avalanche on north facing Davenport Hill in Silver Fork of Big Cottonwood Canyon. (DETAILS) It fits the pattern to a tee with our buried weak layers and other recent avalanches on those layers. Upper elevation north facing aspects remain suspect.

CLICK HERE for a snow and weather summary for the first half of November.
Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

As time goes on, triggering an avalanche on these high north slopes becomes less of a chance. However, don't be surprised if you go up there and trigger something. The problem is we want to go to the places where we are most likely to trigger an avalanche because these same places hold the most snow, and snow cover is scarce right now.

Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

With the warm temperatures on Monday making the southerly slopes become damp, there's probably not much snow available for transport but with some wind overnight, this avalanche problem is at least worth a mention.
weather

A westerly flow could bring us some snow over the next couple of days with a closed low pressure system drifting to our south later in the week. For today, expect periods of snow with only a couple of inches of accumulation if that. Southerly winds should slow a bit more and switch more west. Temperatures will remain fairly mild with snow levels around 7000 feet. Temperatures cool slightly and periods of snow should become more numerous on Wednesday with a better chance of a few inches of accumulation. Not much but we'll take it! Things get dry later in the week.
general announcements

If you trigger an avalanche in the backcountry - especially if you are adjacent to a ski area – please call the following teams to alert them to the slide and whether anyone is missing or not. Rescue teams can be exposed to significant hazard when responding to avalanches, and do not want to do so when unneeded. Thanks.

Salt Lake and Park City – Alta Central (801-742-2033), Canyons Resort Dispatch (435-615-3322)

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UDOT canyon closures UDOT at (801) 975-4838

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Remember your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please participate in the creation of our own community avalanche advisory by submitting snow and avalanche conditions. You can also call us at 801-524-5304 or 800-662-4140, email by clicking HERE, or include #utavy in your tweet or Instagram.