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Avalanche Advisory
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Advisory: Ogden Area Mountains Issued by Drew Hardesty for November 20, 2012 - 7:05am
Above 8,500 ft.
7,000-8,500 ft.
Below 7,000 ft.
bottom line

Most terrain has a LOW avalanche danger. Watch for an increase in shallow wind slab development in the high lee terrain over the next couple of days.




danger scale: 1. Low 2. Moderate 3. Considerable 4. High 5. Extreme
current conditions

Skies dawn clear this morning with overnight "lows" in the upper 20s to mid-30s. Winds are starting to ramp up ahead of a clipper -storm that will pass by to the north tomorrow. Anemometers that best track southerly flow winds are already showing hourly averages of 30 with gusts to 35. It's like that old tourist-trap t-shirt that reads, "The Tetons got snow and all I got was this lousy t-shirt with wind and way too warm temperatures." It's about worn out after last year.

Riding conditions remain good in the mid to upper elevation shady terrain. Southerly and westerly aspects - and all elevations below about 8500' - are sun and rain damaged. Jim Steenburgh, U of U professor of atmospheric sciences and backcountry skier (and not necessarily in that order) writes a great weather blog and addresses the topic of global warming and the what the future might look like with a posting, The Blessings of Altitude. It's worth a look.

recent activity

No reports of cracking, significant collapsing, or avalanches from the backcountry yesterday. Avalanche control work in Big and Little Cottonwood and the Park City mountains offered no results. This is key information as this is in terrain that is not yet skier-compacted; in other words - "a backcountry snowpack".

Avalanche Problem 1over the next 24 hours
type aspect/elevation characteristics
Above 8,500 ft.
7,000-8,500 ft.
Below 7,000 ft.
likelihood size
likely
unlikely
large
small
distribution trend
widespread
isolated
More Dangerous
Decreasing
Less Dangerous
description

Here's what we know regarding the old October weak snow interface 12-18" down

  • It's been just over a week since the last avalanche was triggered along this interface
  • Plenty of volunteer stability testers have tested (ie-center-punched) this terrain
  • Avalanche control work teams haven't been able to get any results into this layering for a number of days
  • No signs of cracking or significant collapsing noted by observers
  • Snow test results are variable and inconsistent

Avalanche Problem 2over the next 24 hours
type aspect/elevation characteristics
Above 8,500 ft.
7,000-8,500 ft.
Below 7,000 ft.
likelihood size
likely
unlikely
large
small
distribution trend
widespread
isolated
More Dangerous
Increasing
Less Dangerous
description

The now-cast for wind drifts is a LOW danger...the forecast is for increasing wind slab development along the high northwest to northeast facing slopes over the next couple of days.

Avalanche Problem 3over the next 24 hours
type aspect/elevation characteristics
Above 8,500 ft.
7,000-8,500 ft.
Below 7,000 ft.
likelihood size
likely
unlikely
large
small
distribution trend
widespread
isolated
More Dangerous
Less Dangerous
description

It's mostly Low danger. Riding conditions are pretty good. Continue to follow safe travel protocol, practice with your avalanche transceiver, strategic probing and shovelling techniques.

weather

Bluebird. Winds will be 25mph from the southwest. Temps will be in the low to mid 30s. The southwesterly winds will reach 35-40mph by Wednesday night ahead of a cold front which should drop temps back into the low 20s by Thursday. Expect a flake or two from this system. The ridge rebuilds briefly with perhaps a weaker disturbance by later in the weekend. Potential pattern change by the end of the month. We need it.

general annoucements

 

If you trigger an avalanche in the backcountry - especially if you are adjacent to a ski area – please call the following teams to alert them to the slide and whether anyone is missing or not. Rescue teams can be exposed to significant hazard when responding to avalanches, and do not want to do so when unneeded. Thanks.

Salt Lake and Park City – Alta Central (801-742-2033)

Ogden – Snowbasin Patrol Dispatch (801-620-1017)

Provo – Sundance Patrol Dispatch (801-223-4150)

Dawn Patrol Forecast Hotline, updated by 05:30: 888-999-4019 option 8.

Twitter Updates for your mobile phone

Daily observations are frequently posted by 10 pm each evening.

Subscribe to the daily avalanche advisory e-mail click HERE.

UDOT canyon closures UDOT at (801) 975-4838

Wasatch Powderbird Guides does daily updates about where they'll be operating on this blog http://powderbird.blogspot.com/ .

Remember your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please participate in the creation of our own community avalanche advisory by submitting snow and avalanche conditions. You can also call us at 801-524-5304 or 800-662-4140, or email by clicking HERE

Donate to your favorite non-profit –The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center. The UAC depends on contributions from users like you to support our work.

We will update this forecast tomorrow. Thanks for calling.

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