Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Moab Area Mountains Issued by Eric Trenbeath for Monday - March 16, 2015 - 7:44am
bottom line

The avalanche danger today is MODERATE for wet slide activity on all aspects. There also still remains an isolated danger for triggering a dry persistent slab. Though "pockety" in nature, this danger may exist on steep, rocky terrain, right around tree line and above on slopes that have a NW-N-E aspect.




special announcement

This advisory has been formulated from field work performed over the weekend of March 14-15 and weather observations taken on Monday, March 16. It is to be used as a baseline and backcountry travelers will need to from their own hazard analysis over the next several days based on current weather conditions. Spring like conditions are in effect and timing is everything in the mountains right now as daytime heating increases the risk for wet slide activity. Pay attention to overnight low temperatures by using the links provided under current conditions. The lack of a good solid re-freeze overnight also increases the risk. The next advisory will be posted on Friday, March 20.
current conditions

La Sal Mountains

Upper elevation, dry snow conditions were affected a little by last Friday's NE winds, but soft, settled snow can still be found up there. All things considered, riding and skiing remains quite good. All sun exposed slopes are crusted over but will soften as the day progresses. SW winds picked up this morning and are averaging 15-25 mph. Overnight lows dropped to right around freezing on Pre Laurel Peak and in Gold Basin. It is going to get warm fast today however with temps at 10,000' rising to near 50 degrees.

La Sal Mountains Current Weather

Wind speeds and temperature at 11,700' on Pre-Laurel Peak.

New snow totals and temperature at Geyser Pass Trailhead.

New snow totals and temperature in Gold Basin.

Abajo / Blue Mountains

Mixed bag conditions and overall low coverage remain the order in the Abajos. Northerly aspects at upper elevations have as much as 4' of snow, while wind and sun exposed slopes are still showing rocks and grass.

Abajo / Blue Mountains Current Weather

Winds and temperature on Abajo Peak.

Snow total at Buckboard Flat.
recent activity
Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 10 hours
description

Today the danger for wet slide activity will rise on all aspects as the day heats up. Even upper elevation north facing slopes may start to be affected. Timing is everything this time of year. Stay off of and out from under steep slopes if you notice the snow getting sloppy or see signs of instability such as pinwheels, roller balls, or loose snow sluffs.
Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

The danger for triggering a persistent slab has greatly diminished, and people have been pushing into much larger terrain than is typical for the La Sals without incident. The danger now is very isolated and "pockety" but it does still exist in areas of steep, rocky terrain right around tree line or just above on slopes with a NW-N-E aspect. Warmer temperatures may make these slabs more sensitive to the weight of a skier or rider today.

weather

Skies will remain clear today through Tuesday with high temps at 10,000' approaching 50 degrees. A change in the weather will come on Tuesday night as a disorganized system brings a chance of snow and cooler temperatures through Thursday.

general announcements

Observations: If you are out and about, I would love to know what you are seeing. Please post your observations here.

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This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always exist.