Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Moab Area Mountains Issued by Eric Trenbeath for Monday - January 19, 2015 - 6:56am
bottom line

There is a MODERATE danger for triggering a recently deposited wind slab on all aspects steeper than 35 degrees, primarily at upper elevations, in areas that you can detect recent deposits of wind drifted snow. There also remains a MODERATE danger of triggering a persistent slab on steep, upper elevation slopes with a NW-N-E aspect, particularly in rocky areas that have a thin snowpack.




special announcement

This advisory is based on field work performed on Sunday, January 18 and weather observations taken on Monday, January 19. It is to be used as a baseline for forming your own danger analysis for the upcoming week. Little change in the weather or in the avalanche conditions is expected for the next several days, but mountain weather conditions can change without warning. Use the weather links provided under the current conditions section to stay abreast of wind, temperature and new snowfall. The next advisory will be updated on Thursday, January 22.

current conditions

La Sal Mountains

Conditions are becoming more mixed out there. Wind from all directions and a strong sun have affected the snow surface in exposed locations. Best bet for good "recycled" powder conditions is on sheltered slopes below tree line. Base depth in Gold Basin is 44" and 32" at the Geyser Pass Trailhead.

Thanks to everyone who has posted recent observations.

Wind speeds and temperature at 11,700' on Pre-Laurel Peak.

New snow totals and temperature at Geyser Pass Trailhead.

New snow totals and temperature in Gold Basin.

Abajo / Blue Mountains.

Low snow conditions prevail but soft powder can be found on sheltered terrain below tree line. In these areas the base depth ranges from 20-30" of snow. Sunnier aspects remain extremely shallow as most were down to bare ground prior to last week's storm. For an observation report from Friday, January 16 click here.

Winds and temperature on Abajo Peak.

Snow total at Buckboard Flat.


recent activity

A significant avalanche that was likely skier triggered occurred on the afternoon of January 17. It initiated as a soft slab high on the NE face of Tukno. It ran for 900' until it reached a steep convexity at which point it broke to the ground with a 4' deep fracture. It then ran for another 800' down into Tele Heaven. A pair of ski tracks were observed high on the slope as well as exiting the area. Tracks from two local skiers who had been in the area earlier were partially covered by the slide.



The storm on Monday, January 12 produced several storm slab avalanches with at least one that stepped down into persistent weak layers. Here is a list of the most recent avalanches.

Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Stiff wind slabs remain in upper elevation terrain along ridge crests and on the lee sides of terrain features. Variable winds over the past week have made it possible to find these slabs on all aspects. Avoid slopes steeper than 35 degrees in areas where you can detect recent deposits of wind drifted snow. Look for smooth rounded pillows that have a hollow feel to them, and watch for signs of instability such as cracking in the snow surface.

Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Conditions are down right spooky out there. Though signs of instability aren't always presenting themselves, two wind slab releases in the past week, one possibly skier triggered, have stepped down into buried persistent weaknesses producing large and dangerous avalanches. In short, I am extremely leery. The danger remains for triggering one of these deep persistent slabs on upper-mid to upper elevation slopes steeper than 35 degrees that have a NW-N-E aspect, particularly in areas of rocky terrain that have a thin shallow snowpack.

weather

Conditions will be mostly high and dry this week with a couple of shortwave troughs, one to the north and one to the south bringing some clouds to our area Monday, and again on Wednesday. Monday will be the warmest day with high temperatures at 10,000' in the mid 30's and then hovering around 30 for the remainder of the week. Overnight lows will drop into the teens.

M.L.King Day: Partly sunny, with a high near 36. West wind 10 to 15 mph.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19. West northwest wind around 10 mph.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 31. North northwest wind 5 to 10 mph.
Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17. South southwest wind around 5 mph.
Wednesday: A 30 percent chance of snow, mainly before 11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 31. North wind 5 to 10 mph.
Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 14.
Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 30.
Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 17.
Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 32.

general announcements


Road Conditions: The road is plowed and clear. 

Grooming Conditions: Trails are scheduled to be groomed on Monday and Friday. 

Observations: If you are out and about, I would love to know what you are seeing. Please post your observations here.

EMAIL ADVISORY  If you would like to get the daily advisory by email you will need to subscribe here.​ 

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This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always exist. This advisory will be updated on Thursday, January 22.