Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Logan Area Mountains Issued by Toby Weed for Saturday - April 12, 2014 - 6:33am
bottom line

After the forth night without a freeze, very warm temperatures and direct sun will again cause dangerous avalanche conditions and a CONSIDERABLE or level 3 danger in the backcountry. Natural and triggered wet avalanches will be possible on slopes steeper than about 30 degrees, especially during the heat of midday.. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision making will be essential for safe travel in the backcountry today.

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current conditions

The Tony Grove Snotel at 8400' reports 39 degrees and there's 97 inches of total snow, with 135% of average water content for the date. It's 35 degrees at the 9700' CSI Logan Peak weather station, and I'm currently reading west-northwest winds averaging around 15 mph.

Very warm temperatures are causing cornices to sag and buckle, and some are failing in the heat of midday, like this one I spied yesterday afternoon in the Central Wellsville Range. 4-10-2014
recent activity

Locally: On Monday, a snowboarder unintentionally triggered and was able to ride off of a shallow wind slab on the north face of Millville Peak. An observer reported a new significant natural wet avalanche in lower Spring Hollow Thursday night, and I noticed some fresh natural activity Thursday and more yesterday afternoon in the Wellsville Range Visit our Backcountry Observations Page for details on the season's activity.

A large natural wet avalanche from the warm spell in North Hells Canyon in the Wellsville Mountain Wilderness. The avalanche was triggered by cornice-fall and ran around 2000 vertical feet. 4-11-2014.
Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description
  • Cooler weather, clouds, and wind should keep things a bit cooler today, and we're looking forward to freezing overnight temperatures in the mountains. Freezing overnight temperatures will help solidify the saturated snow.
  • Natural and triggered wet avalanches are possible again today in steep terrain. Natural wet avalanches kill more people than triggered wet avalanches. See Evelyn's stats HERE
  • Avoid travel in the heat of midday. It's always a good idea to get an early start and leave the mountains before the saturated snow turns to mush, but warm overnight temperatures mean the snow will soften up and get dangerous earlier. Any refrozen snow today will be only superficially frozen and the veneer crusts won't last long in the heat.
  • You're likely to trigger loose wet avalanches in steep terrain again today, and more dangerous wet slabs are also possible in some areas. I noticed audible collapsing in Wood Camp on Tuesday, and an observer reported the same Thursday evening in Spring Hollow.
Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 10 hours
description

Avoid and stay out from under large and overhanging cornices along major ridge-lines, which are likely to break further back than you expect and could trigger avalanches on slopes below. It's especially important to stay out from under these guys during the heat of the day, when they sag and buckle, and more will likely naturally fail and calve off in large chunks.
weather

Should see increasing clouds, with 9000' high temperatures topping out in the mid-forties, moderate westerly winds, some snow showers and a chance of thunder this afternoon. Mountain temperatures should drop into the mid twenties overnight, west winds pushing 20 mph on the ridges, snow showers likely, and thunder possible. Less than an inch of accumulation is forecast, but a bit may stick on Sunday as snow showers continue, winds intensify, and temperatures remain more reasonable .

Check out our one-stop weather page........HERE
general announcements

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Remember your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please participate in the creation of our own community avalanche advisory by submitting snow and avalanche conditions. You can also call us at 801-524-5304 or 800-662-4140, email by clicking HERE, or include #utavy in your tweet or Instagram.

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I'll issue weekend and intermittent advisories through April.

This advisory is produced by the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. It describes only general avalanche conditions and local variations always exist.