Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Logan Area Mountains Issued by Toby Weed for Friday - April 11, 2014 - 7:15am
bottom line

After the third night without a freeze, very warm temperatures and direct sun will again cause dangerous avalanche conditions and a CONSIDERABLE or level 3 danger in the backcountry. The danger may rise to HIGH or level 4 in some steep terrain by this afternoon. Natural and triggered wet avalanches will become likely on slopes steeper than about 30 degrees, especially during the heat of midday.. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision making will be essential for safe travel in the backcountry today.

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current conditions

The Tony Grove Snotel at 8400' reports 38 degrees and there's 99 inches of total snow, with 134% of average water content for the date. It's 35 degrees at the 9700' CSI Logan Peak weather station, and I'm currently reading southwest winds averaging a bit above 20 mph.

Very warm temperatures are causing cornices to sag and buckle, and some are failing in the heat of midday, like this one I spied yesterday afternoon in the Central Wellsville Range. 4-10-2014
recent activity

Locally: On Monday, a snowboarder unintentionally triggered and was able to ride off of a shallow wind slab on the north face of Millville Peak. An observer reported a new significant natural wet avalanche in lower Spring Hollow last night, and I noticed some fresh natural activity yesterday afternoon in the Wellsville Range Visit our Backcountry Observations Page for details on the season's activity.

A large natural avalanche from the warm spell in Spring Hollow. 4-10-2014, Rosenberg
Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description
  • Natural and triggered wet avalanches are likely again today in steep terrain. Natural wet avalanches kill more people than triggered wet avalanches. See Evelyn's stats HERE
  • Avoid travel in the heat of midday. It's always a good idea to get an early start and leave the mountains before the saturated snow turns to mush, but warm overnight temperatures mean the snow will soften up and get dangerous earlier.
  • Any refrozen snow today will be only superficially frozen and the veneer crusts won't last long in the heat.
  • You're likely to trigger loose wet avalanches in steep terrain again today, and more dangerous wet slabs are also possible in some areas. I noticed audible collapsing in Wood Camp on Tuesday, and an observer reported the same yesterday evening in Spring Hollow.
Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Avoid and stay out from under large and overhanging cornices along major ridge-lines, which are likely to break further back than you expect and could trigger avalanches on slopes below. It's especially important to stay out from under these guys during the heat of the day, when they sag and buckle, and more will likely naturally fail and calve off in large chunks.
weather

It'll be mostly sunny and pretty hot in the mountains again today, with 9000' high temperatures forecast to reach 50 degrees. Expect overnight low temperatures, above freezing again tonight, around 38 degrees, with partly cloudy skies. Expect tomorrow to be a bit cooler, with cloud cover, a chance of snow showers, west winds, and a slight chance of thunder. Mountain temperatures are supposed to drop below freezing tomorrow night. Cooler weather, with snow showers, but not much in the way of accumulations will bring us into next week.

Check out our one-stop weather page........HERE
general announcements

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Remember your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please participate in the creation of our own community avalanche advisory by submitting snow and avalanche conditions. You can also call us at 801-524-5304 or 800-662-4140, email by clicking HERE, or include #utavy in your tweet or Instagram.

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I'll issue weekend and intermittent advisories through April.

This advisory is produced by the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. It describes only general avalanche conditions and local variations always exist.