Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains
Issued by Craig Gordon for
Monday, December 13, 2021
Monday, December 13, 2021
In the wind zone, at and above treeline a CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger exists on steep, upper elevation terrain facing the north half of the compass and HUMAN TRIGGERED AVALANCHES ARE LIKELY, especially on wind drifted slopes and particularly those that harbor old October snow. And remember... any avalanche that fails on older snow will get quickly out of hand, breaking deeper and wider than you might expect, revealing a myriad of season ending obstacles. In addition, strong winds are forming fresh drifts in mid elevation terrain where you'll find MODERATE avalanche danger on steep, wind drifted slopes facing the north half of the compass and human triggered avalanches are possible.
But here's the good news- simply switch aspect or lose elevation and set your sights on terrain that was bare prior to last weeks big storm. You'll find generally LOW avalanche danger on slopes with these characteristics.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
NOWCAST-
Southerly winds are the big headline news and they started bumping into the 30's and 40's just after dinnertime Sunday, ramping into the 60's early this morning. A few high clouds drift into the region and temperatures register in the mid to upper 20's. Riding and turning options went from zero to hero with last weeks storm, but with total snow depths registering right around 24" it's still thin out there. Road rides and rock free, low angle meadows are the ticket.
FORECAST-
A good looking storm is on the doorstep and today is the warm before that storm. Look for increasing clouds throughout the day with high temperatures climbing into the mid 30's. Southerly winds blow in the 50's, gusting into the 70's along the high peaks.
FUTURECAST-
The graphic above says it all. An active weather pattern sets up for the next few days. Expect strong winds through a good portion of Tuesday with snow beginning to fall late Tuesday morning. The storm really gets going Tuesday night and Wednesday and I think we can expect a solid foot of snow before things taper off late Wednesday. A break in the action slated for Thursday is short-lived as another storm is on tap to round out the work week.
Looking for real-time temps, snow, or wind?
Click HERE and then on the "western Uinta" tab for western Uinta specific, weather station network.
Recent Avalanches
Ted was near Bald Mountain Saturday and found remnants of a few natural avalanches which occurred on steep, wind drifted terrain during the height of last weeks storm. A great writeup along with Ted's take on the current state of snowpack is found HERE
Observations, trip reports, and avalanches found here.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Above is a 24 hour data dump from Lofty Lake Peak, 11,186' in elevation, showing a steady increase in upper elevation wind speeds
Strong southerly winds have been humming along the high ridges for the past 24 hours and there's plenty of loose snow to work with to form fresh wind drifts along the leeward side of mid and upper elevation ridges. So, today's most obvious and in your face avalanche problem is both old and newly formed drifts. Easy to detect by their fat, rounded, and often chalky appearance they're easier to avoid by simply steering clear of any steep, wind drifted, mid and upper elevation slope. With sustained strong winds, I wouldn't be too surprised to find drifting on slopes we usually consider sheltered from the wind.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
A quick weekend synopsis of the Wolf Creek area in the viddy above
Winds are always the great equalizer on the eastern front and recent winds are helping to form a stiff, cohesive slab which now rests on fragile, old October snow... or what we call a persistent weak layer (PWL). This is the classic "strong snow on weak snow" setup and that's always a dangerous combination in our mountains. This combo makes snow feel strong under our skis, board, or sled and often allows us to get well out onto the slope before the weak layer fails (often around a bush or rock we can't see under the snow), the avalanche breaks above us, and now the entire seasons snowpack crashes down on top of us.
Now here's where it gets tricky... there's a fresh blanket of snow coating our mountains and everything's gonna look white. In fact, it'll be more difficult to determine what slopes held early season snow. But remember... terrain that faces the south half of the compass and lower elevation slopes were bare prior to last weeks big storm. And while there's plenty of gear wrecking rocks and stumps to slam into, there's no old snow and avalanche issues are straight-forward.
Additional Information
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General Announcements
The information in this forecast expires 24 hours after the day and time posted, but will be updated by 07:00 Tuesday December 14th.
Before it gets too crazy, now is the time to book an avalanche awareness presentation for your group, club, or posse. You can reach me directly at 801-231-2170 or [email protected]
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.