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Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains

Craig Gordon
Issued by Craig Gordon on
Saturday morning, December 10, 2022
Heads up... a solid looking storm is on the doorstep and avalanche danger will begin changing as the storm evolves-
For today in the wind zone, at and above treeline, CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger is found on steep slopes, especially those facing the north half of the compass, and particularly terrain with an easterly component to its orientation. Human triggered avalanches breaking to weak, sugary, midpack snow are LIKELY. Mid and lower elevation shady slopes with similar layering offer MODERATE avalanche danger and human triggered avalanches are POSSIBLE
LOW avalanche danger is found on low and mid elevation south facing slopes and human triggered avalanches are UNLIKELY.
Wanna avoid avalanche danger, score great riding, and stay out of the wind? Well then, you came to the right place. Here's the hot tip... I've been finding excellent riding conditions and fun meadow skipping on mellow, wind sheltered slopes with no overhead hazard (meaning, no steep slopes above or adjacent to where I'm traveling). Remember, don't get too throttle happy because it's still low tide and there's plenty of reef barely hidden underneath our recent storms. With a significant danger of hitting rocks, stumps, and other obstacles, you'll wanna tone it down today and don't let a buried treasure ruin your season.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
Please join me tonight for an evening of FREE avy awareness in partnership with Brighton Resort and Ski Patrol-
Who and what- Pete Tucker, Mack, and I will be tag teaming a resort based avy policy, Know Before You Go talk, and a current conditions prezo. In other words... how to avoid avalanches and stay alive in the backcountry.
When- Tonight, Saturday December 10th... 5:30
Where-Brighton Resort, Third Floor Alpine Rose Lodge
Details are HERE
The Utah Avalanche Center and the Division of Outdoor Recreation celebrate the Fourth Annual Avalanche Awareness week, from December 4 - December 11. Click HERE to view the full list of events for the week.
Mirror Lake Highway is closed for the season. SR-35 (Wolf Creek Pass) remains open.
Weather and Snow
Nowcast- A few high, thin clouds drift into the region early this morning as temperatures register in the low teens and mid 20's. Southerly winds clocked out, took a shift break around midnight, and currently blow 15-25 mph along the high ridges. With a mostly solid base and remarkable coverage, riding and turning conditions remain quite good. However, yesterday's winds worked the big open bowls and with breezy conditions on tap for today, you'll wanna consider seeking out mid elevation, wind sheltered terrain for the best snow quality.
Forecast- The warm before the storm... clouds thicken as the day wares on, southerly winds ramp into the 40's and 50's, and temperatures climb into the upper 20's and low 30's.
Futurecast- A solid looking storm begins to materialize overnight with snow showers developing Sunday morning. The computer models are still on the fence for the track and duration of the storm, but tune in manana... same place, same time and I'll have better details for ya Sunday morning.
A multi-day storm keeps snow flying through early next week.
Ted reports great riding conditions and smooth sailing on fresh 'roy in the Whitney Basin.
Lots of excellent trip reports and recent obs are found HERE.
Recent Avalanches
Not exactly breaking news, but significant none-the-less, our main man with the Uinta plan, respected colleague, and forecaster extraordinaire Ted Scroggin got eyes on Yamaha Hill which avalanched naturally last weekend. Ted's got a great trip report from his travels in Whitney Basin found HERE.
A slew of additional Uinta obs HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Once initiated, avalanches can break into weak layers of snow buried in the mid portion of our snowpack, resulting in a slide that gets quickly out of hand.
No dramatic changes in this camp. Yes the snowpack is adjusting to last weeks big storm and the lack of avalanche activity suggests a slow turn towards stability... good news. But, I can't ignore the inherently sketchy structure formed by two weeks of dry, bitter cold weather during mid November, which created a layer of very weak, sugary facets on the snow surface. And I can't cast aside the fact that those layers are preserved underneath several storms and buried in the mid portion of our snowpack. So yes, I'm thinking not only about the snow I'm riding in, but also the snow I'm riding on. Here's where the rubber hits the road and what makes things tricky right now... any avalanche that fails near our new problem child, the persistent weak layer or (PWL), is gonna break deep and wide and it's gonna be dangerous.
Unless you take your shovel out, dig down and investigate a bit, you can easily get lulled into a false sense of snow stability because the snowpack has gained a substantial amount of buoyancy and will feel strong and solid underneath us. But remember- hard, dense snow resting on weak, sugary snow can give us a false sense of snow stability, allowing us to get out further onto a slope before it fails and brings the entire roof down on top of us.
Obvious signs of unstable snow include cracking, collapsing, and whoomping noises as well as natures freebie... natural avalanches!
Micheal J's pit profile confirms our continued concern with our snowpack setup. MJ's got a great trip report from yesterday while he was in the Hoyt environs.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
A 24 hour data dump reflecting recent winds from Windy Peak (10,661')
Yesterday, I found shallow drifts sensitive to my additional weight as winds whipped up a few fresh drifts along the leeward side of upper elevation ridges and around terrain features like chutes and gullies. Easily managed and avoided with terrain choices, lose the wind, you lose the problem and score great riding conditions to boot.
Additional Information
And... we were super busy this summer upgrading the western Uinta weather station network and this real-time winter info is found HERE (click weather stations, and then on the Western Uinta tab)
Your observations are important, so please let me know what you're seeing... click HERE and contribute to this amazing community-based program
General Announcements
Issued at 03:57 on Satuday December 10th, this forecast expires 24 hours after the date and time posted, but will be updated by 07:00 Sunday December 11th.
Before it gets too crazy, now is the time to book an avalanche awareness presentation for your group, club, or posse. You can reach Craig directly at 801-231-2170 or [email protected].
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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