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Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik for
Saturday, March 19, 2022
The majority of the terrain on the Skyline has a LOW to MODERATE avalanche danger.
A CONSIDERABLE danger remains on steep upper elevation northwest, north, and northeast facing slopes.
Human triggered avalanches are still a distinct possibility.
Conditions remain dangerous in the upper elevation northerly terrain because we cannot determine which slopes will stay in place and which ones will avalanche.
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Weather and Snow
Current Conditions
Southwest wind picked up just enough on Friday that it felt slightly breezy along the upper ridges. It has slowed again now. Temperatures stayed cool on Friday and cloud cover later in the day helped keep the snow cold and dry. Riding conditions remain decent. Overnight temperatures dropped into the low to mid 20s.
Mountain Weather
We're going to see high clouds today with temperatures up into the upper 30s or low 40s. Southerly wind will gradually increase although I don't think it will get too strong. A storm system over California will split and slide under us on Sunday. The result is we will get nickeled and dimed with light snowfall perhaps adding up to a couple of inches by Monday.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
It is getting harder and more unlikely to trigger a deep avalanche. However, the buried Persistent Weak Layer is still there. It has gained some strength however, during snowpit tests on Friday, 3 out of 4 tests still failed and cleanly propagated across the weak layer. (four locations: ECTP22, ECTP22, ECTX. ECTP22) The Extended Column Test results were stubborn (22 taps) but still propagated (P) and cleanly failed.
So, here's the deal. While it does seem much less likely that people will trigger avalanches, it still remains a serious concern. Many slopes will stay in place, others may not. The problem is that I can't tell you which ones will avalanche. I can't figure out which steep north facing slopes are stable enough for me to feel comfortable enough to get onto. This tells me things remain dangerous.
Additional Information
SKYLINE AVALANCHES & OBSERVATIONS
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This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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