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Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Mark Staples
Issued by Mark Staples on
Monday morning, December 31, 2018
Today the avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE at upper elevations where slabs exist of wind-drifted snow from various wind directions in the last three days have. You'll have to be a detective to avoid these wind slabs because some will be covered by last night's new snow.
Isolated locations and pockets with a thin snowpack could have avalanches that break near the ground but these places will likely need the load of wind drifted snow.
The danger is MODERATE at mid elevations and LOW at low elevations. Go to wind-sheltered slopes from any wind direction for the best skiing and riding.
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Special Announcements
Weather and Snow
Since yesterday afternoon 1-3 inches of very light snow fell.
Winds were blowing from the west yesterday 15-30 mph and probably with some 60 mph gusts at the highest elevations. This morning winds shifted to the NW and are blowing 10-15 mph.
Temperatures are hovering near 10 degrees F in most places.
Today will have mostly cloudy skies though the sun may appear and make some dramatic lighting. Temperatures should remain where they are this morning and begin falling tonight under clear skies. Winds will continue from the NW at 10-20 mph and could swing around and blow a little easterly.
Recent Avalanches
No avalanches were reported in the Provo area mountains. Further north in the Cottonwood Canyons, some ski patrols reported sensitive wind slabs that formed during yesterday's strong westerly winds.
Read this great observation about a wind slab avalanche and the challenges with identifying and managing them.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Slabs of wind drifted snow were cracking and showing obvious signs of instability yesterday afternoon. These wind slabs should be easy to trigger this morning. They may start stabilizing through the day and become more stubborn but I wouldn't trust them today.
This avalanche problem will be tricky to avoid today because winds have blown in different directions loading different aspects. Also, new snow has covered some wind slabs that formed over the last few days. A few specific reasons:
  1. Even though winds calmed since yesterday, northerly winds this morning will have no trouble transporting the very light new snow and may even blow a little from the northeast today.
  2. Wind slabs formed by yesterday's strong westerly winds will (in some places) be covered by fresh snow and not look like places with wind drifted snow.
  3. East and Northeast winds early Friday morning formed wind slabs that will be hard to spot. These older wind slabs may still break today and produce a deeper avalanche as much as 2 feet deep.
  4. Some of these old wind slabs will be fairly dense and stiff which means they may not break until you get further onto them.
Cracking as in the photo below is a clear sign of instability.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
We can't forget about a buried persistent weak layer near the ground on northerly and east aspects. In many places the snowpack has gotten over a meter deep and this layer has not been breaking in stability tests. However, it is weaker places with thin snow (less than 3 feet deep). A natural avalanche yesterday in South Monitor Bowl along the Park City ridgeline is a good reminder and good indication of the size of this type of avalanche. That slide occurred in a path that has already avalanched several times this year
To get a slab avalanche breaking on this layer, it probably needs a combination of a thin snowpack with a load of wind drifted snow. Read more about this avalanche problem in the Provo area HERE.
General Announcements
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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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