Facets at the ground exist. Will they create an avalanche problem?
- They need a rapid, heavy load to become a widespread problem. 2 inches of water weight (about 20-40 inches of snow depending on temps) in 12 hours would probably do it. Big storms from the southwest can certainly provide that kind of snowfall in these mountains.
- Cumulative loading (ie - small continuous loading events) could start to make them unstable. We felt they could hold a decent load, but we would be hesistant to jump into avalanche terrain where this layer exists until it had a chance to "adjust" to recent loading.
- Bad luck. The higher you go and the closer you go to N or NE facing slopes, your odds of triggering a slide on this layer go up. A heavy load of wind drifted snow could provide enough of a load to get a pocket to break 3-4 feet deep on this layer.
The last reason (luck) is why many avalanche pros and experienced backcountry travelers are waiting for (1) this layer to get buried deeper, (2) this layer to have more time insulated by the snowpack to gain strength, and (3) this layer to be tested by the weight of a large storm with no avalanche activity on it. Luck is not a good risk management strategy. After time, it could be "game on" to ride big north facing slopes. Patience is key. The snowpack is shaping up for that green light to come on in the foreseeable future.
Notice the temperature profile in the snowpit. The steep temperature gradient is confined to the upper foot of snow. Deeper layers have a low temperature gradient that is good for bonding of snow crystals. Facets take a long time to bond and gain strength, but being insulated by a thick blanket of snow promotes this slow healing process.
Where does this layer exist?
South aspects do not have this layer. North and Northeast aspects above 9000 feet have this layer. We dug at almost 9200 feet. Chris found this layer yesterday south of Provo Canyon. It was thicker and more obvious because he was a little higher (9500 ft) and the mtns south of Provo Canyon had received more early season snow than Mt Timpanogos.
