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Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Evelyn Lees
Issued by Evelyn Lees on
Tuesday morning, January 1, 2019
Today the avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on all steep upper elevation slopes where dense slabs of wind-drifted snow can be found on all aspects because of the various wind directions. Some drifts will be obvious, others hidden beneath snow, and they will tend to break above you, not at your feet. The danger for wind drifts is MODERATE at mid and low elevations, including the foothills. Wind-sheltered slopes will still have good skiing and riding, where sluffing of the new snow is possible in steep terrain.
Isolated locations with a thin snowpack could have avalanches that break near the ground, mostly likely where they have a new load of wind drifted snow.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
The northeasterly wind event is the headline, with blowing snow from the summits to the valley floor. Speeds picked up in the Provo area mountains around 3 am, with average speeds of 25 mph, gusting in the 30saverages of 20 mph, with gusts to 25 at 6,600'. Winds speeds have generally been even higher near the canyon mouths.
Skies have cleared and temperatures plummeted - they’re in the single digits below zero, and will only warm into the single digits above zero to the low teens. The northeasterly winds will slowly decrease today, into the 10 to 20 mph range, with the high ridge lines averaging 20 to 30, with gusts to 40. Very wind sheltered slopes will still have soft, powdery snow.
This video is from Broads Fork, BCC, as the winds picked up yesterday afternoon.
Recent Avalanches
No new avalanches reported from the Provo area mountains, but I assume the northeasterly winds are changing the landscape as I write. Natural avalanches may be occuring this morning during the periods of strongest winds.
An excellent observation from Andrew Bentz on Provo peak yesterday - even before the wind event they were find wind drifts. Photo below. Wind slabs were also found on the ridge line at the top of UFO bowls, on the back side of Timp.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Wind drifts can be found today at all elevations and on all aspects. While most widespread at the upper elevations, you will also find drifts at the lower elevations of the foothills and near the canyon mouths. Yesterday’s unusual northeasterly wind direction will have drifted snow onto unusual slopes, cross loading across gullies and depositing drifts well off the ridge lines. If you’re going hiking or walking your dog in the foothills or on low elevation trails, look for and avoid the smooth, rounded wind drifts, especially on steep slopes and in gullies.

To complicate matters, there are older buried wind slabs that will be difficult to detect. Created by a variety of wind directions earlier this week, they are on a variety of aspects and around mid slope terrain features. Approach all steep slopes with caution - these hard wind drifts can not be ski cut and will break above you.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The buried persistent weak layer remains near the ground on northerly and east aspects. In addition, there are weak faceted layers mid pack in the Provo area mountains. Below is a photo from Woody, 10,200', of the weak mid pack layers. Today's new wind slabs could break on either of these layers. To get a slab avalanche breaking on this layer near the ground, it probably needs a combination of a thin snowpack with a load of wind drifted snow.
Additional Information
We are also concerned with any of the shallow snowpack areas, at upper, mid and low elevations. In places, the entire snowpack is weakening, and will be a concern in the future.
General Announcements
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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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