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Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains

Craig Gordon
Issued by Craig Gordon for
Wednesday, March 2, 2022
MODERATE avalanche danger is found at and above treeline, especially on slopes facing the north half of the compass where both new and older wind drifts rest on top of weak, sugary snow. Human triggered avalanches are POSSIBLE and may break deeper and wider than you might expect. Lose the wind and you lose the problem. In terrain where last weeks winds haven't drifted snow, especially at mid and lower elevations, the avalanche danger is LOW and human triggered avalanches are UNLIKELY.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
Wanna share a cuppa... Joe, interested in this years snowpack trends, or maybe just NSF curious? Well then, you came to the right place! Please join me at 6:30, Alpha Coffee on Wednesday March 2nd and we can discuss the future of snowpack stability trends together. Save the date, take a date, and I look forward to seeing you there :)
Weather and Snow
NOWCAST-
High thin clouds drifted into the region overnight, keeping a lid on temperatures which are tropical this morning, registering right around freezing. Southwest winds are generally well-behaved, blowing just 15-25 mph even near the high peaks. Mid and lower elevation sunny slopes have cooled overnight, offering supportable melt-freeze crusts and corn (the snow surface... not the vegetable). Swing over to the north half of the compass and you'll still find soft, recycled snow on mid and upper elevation shady slopes, but with just a touch of sun, it quickly turns to hot-pow.
FORECAST-
Partly cloudy skies and very warm temperatures are on tap with highs once again soaring into the mid and upper 40's. Southwest winds blow in the teens and mid 20's.
FUTURECAST-
And in-between day and weather no-mans land for Thursday, so get your chores done, because snow showers begin across the higher terrain mid-day Friday, with precipitation filling in across lower elevations by evening. Colder air slides through the area on Saturday bringing another round of snow with a final piece of energy on Monday. Whilst a multi-day weather event, storm totals still don't look all that impressive only with 6"-8" of snow stacking up.
Trip reports and current state of the snowpack observations are found HERE.
Looking for real-time temps, snow, or wind?
Click HERE and then on the "western Uinta" tab for western Uinta specific, weather station network.
Recent Avalanches
Reported yesterday from a steep northeast facing slope Upper Moffit Basin. A cornice released naturally, peeling off a shallow soft slab near the ridge, crashing down on the slope below which broke into weak faceted snow, triggering a much larger slide than you might expect... 2' deep, 200' wide, running 400' vertical Thanks to Bayou Dave for the nearly instant report yesterday and all the great info!
Your input is vital and we're interested in what you're seeing. Please contribute to this great community resource and go here to fill out an observation.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
As temperatures continuing warming today and the last weeks cold snow begins to settle, pockety slabs will become touchy, reactive to our additional weight, and may break deeper and wider than you might expect.
Last week's storm snow is settling, becoming more cohesive and beginning to bring the weak, sugary, near surface facets (NSF) formed during the January dry-spell out of its dormancy. I spent the past couple days stomping in and around Upper Weber/Chalk Creek and here's the deal. Even though old snow surfaces vary greatly it's really the same story snowpack-wise. The weakest snow I've found is on east, north, and northeast aspects, especially on mid and upper elevation wind sheltered slopes. Here's where it gets tricky... large swaths of upper elevation terrain facing the north half of the compass were blasted by the winds prior to our recent storms and weak snow distribution is spotty at best. That means you'll need to evaluate each slope on an individual basis.
A sidebar HEADS UP - It's easy to be complacent because conditions aren't too dangerous, and avalanches may not be too big. HOWEVER, an avalanche fatality earlier this month in Montana near West Yellowstone is an example of how a relatively small avalanche can be deadly. That avalanche was 4-11 inches deep and 75 feet wide. Read more HERE.
Additional Information
Your observations are important, so please let me know what you're seeing... click HERE and contribute to this amazing community based program
General Announcements
The information in this forecast expires 24 hours after the day and time posted, but will be updated by 07:00 Thursday, March 3rd.
Before it gets too crazy, now is the time to book an avalanche awareness presentation for your group, club, or posse. You can reach me directly at 801-231-2170 or [email protected]
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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