March Kicks Off Our Spring Campaign- Donate Now to Support Forecasting
Ad
The National Forest Service Logo
icon-add Observation
Forecasts
Logan Ogden Salt Lake Provo Uintas Skyline Moab Abajos Weather Archives How to read the forecast
Observations & Avalanches
Submit Observation Observations Explorer All Observations Avalanches Fatalities Weather Place Names Map Archives
Education
Avalanche Class List UAC Class List Online Classes Resources and Tutorials Avalanche Awareness Develop Skills
Events
Store
About
Contact Who we are Core Values Staff Board of Directors Past Forecasters Sponsors Annual Reports Sign In
Blog
icon-add Observation
Donate / Join

Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains

Craig Gordon
Issued by Craig Gordon on
Tuesday morning, February 9, 2021
DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS EXIST, particularly on steep, upper elevation, wind drifted slopes. Any slide triggered will result in a deep, dangerous, and potentially unsurvivable avalanche.
CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger is found near and above treeline. Human triggered avalanches are LIKELY especially on slopes facing the north half of the compass and particularly those with an easterly component to their aspect.
Below treeline, human triggered avalanches are possible on steep wind drifted slopes and the avalanche danger is MODERATE.
Here's your exit strategy- Low avalanche danger is found on lower and mid elevation terrain facing the south half of the compass and slopes less than 30 degrees in steepness, but you need to make sure there's no steep terrain above or adjacent to where you're riding. And remember- the Uinta's have lots of fun rolly-polly terrain and big open meadows.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
We are filled with grief to report four avalanche fatalities yesterday in the Wilson Glade of upper Mill Creek Canyon. The avalanche involved two separate parties. Our deepest condolences go out to the friends and families involved. Our deepest gratitude to the many members of SL County SAR, Wasatch Backcountry Rescue, Intermountain Lifeflight, the United States Forest Service, Utah Dept of Public Safety, along with Brighton, Solitude and Alta Ski Patrols for providing resources and support during this tragic accident. The avalanche path is on north facing terrain at 9800'. The avalanche is estimated to be 2-3' deep and at least 250' wide. Our preliminary report will be continually updated over the next several days
Weather and Snow
Nowcast-
High clouds drift into the region and west-southwest winds continue humming along in the 30's and 40's along the high ridges. Meanwhile, temperatures register in the teens and mid 20's. No new snow to report in the past 24 hours, but last Friday's storm was good to the eastern front, delivering just about a foot of medium density snow, vastly improving the riding and turning conditions. Average snow depths clock in around 4' of total settled snow.
Forecast-
Look for increasing clouds with light snow developing as the day progresses. Not a big storm with just a few inches stacking up. West and northwest winds blow in the 20's and 30's with a few gusts in the 40's near the high peaks. High temperatures climb into the low 30's with overnight lows dipping into the teens.
Futurecast-
Partly cloudy skies for mid week and confidence increases for an active pattern starting Friday and lasting into early next week, bringing opportunities for moderate to heavy mountain snow accumulations... stay tuned
Looking for real-time temps, snow, or wind?
Click here and then on the "western Uinta" tab for western Uinta specific, weather station network.
Recent Avalanches
Many large avalanches were triggered across the range this weekend including a near miss at Moffit Peak (top image) and amazing viddy HERE. Along with an intentionally triggered slide in upper Weber Canyon (bottom image).
More obs and trip reports found here.
Ad
Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Once triggered, today's avalanches will break deep and wide, taking out the entire seasons snowpack like Saturday's large avalanche near Moffit Peak which I discusses in the viddy above.
The snowpack is settling, getting stronger, and becoming more comfortable in its own skin and that's the good news. But the bad news is, our snowpack is a structural gong show which isn't healing any time soon. And without getting all sciencey and snow nerdy with y'all, let's think about it this way... imagine you're building a home with a weak foundation that doesn't get any stronger over time, yet we have to keep on the construction schedule and we keep adding additional, heavier, more dense floors on top - eventually the whole structure collapses. Last weeks new snow and wind drifted snow added more floors to this unstable, house of cards structure. And while many slopes avalanched naturally, there's still many more that just wait for a trigger like us to roll along and knock the legs out from underneath.
THIS AVALANCHE PROBLEM IS TRICKY - Tracks on a slope do not mean it's safe. As a matter of fact, as the snow gains strength it allows us to get well out onto the slope before it fails and it may be the 2nd, 3rd, or even 10th person on a slope who triggers the slide.
And here's where the rubber hits the road... recent avalanche activity shows us that avalanches are unmanageably large and breaking to the dirt!
I describe this set up in the video below
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Recent winds have cranked in the 50's, 60's and 70's along the high ridges, easily transporting last weeks storm snow and whipping up a fresh batch of slabs.
The main issue with slabs of wind drifted snow is... they increase the load and stress on buried persistent weak layers which elevates the likelihood of triggering a slide. Once triggered, a small wind drift can easily get out of hand if it breaks into weaker layers of snow, buried deeper in the snowpack.
What's tricky - winds have reached well below treeline and you may find fresh deposits on slopes you normally consider sheltered from the wind.
Weston and crew found recent winds shaking the branches in wind sheltered terrain, delivering a round of tree bombs and falling debris.
Additional Information
On Thursday, Andy, Joey, and I setup the avalanche beacon training park at the Nobletts trailhead. There is also one at the Bear River Trailhead that Ted Scroggin set up. These beacon parks have pre-buried beacons that you can turn on/off with a control panel. It only takes a few minutes to refresh your beacon searching skills at one of these places.
I will update this forecast by 7:00 AM tomorrow, Tuesday, February 9th.
Your observations are import, so please let me know what you're seeing... click HERE and contribute to this amazing community based program
General Announcements
If you see or trigger an avalanche or just wanna let me know what you're seeing you can reach me directly at 801-231-2170 or [email protected]
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
< Previous forecast
Next forecast >