Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains

Craig Gordon
Issued by Craig Gordon for
Sunday, February 24, 2019
While not widespread and making up a small portion of the terrain available to ride today, in the wind zone, at and above treeline, you'll find pockets of CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger. Human triggered avalanches are LIKELY on steep wind drifted slopes, especially those facing the north half of the compass and particularly those with an easterly component to their aspect. Any avalanche that breaks into deeper buried weak layers near the ground will result in a deep, dangerous avalanche.
You'll find MODERATE avalanche danger on steep, mid elevation, wind drifted slopes and human triggered avalanches are POSSIBLE.
Your exit strategy and ticket for a safer riding alternative exists on low angle, lower elevation terrain with no steep slopes above or adjacent to where you're riding. In terrain with these characteristics you'll find generally LOW avalanche danger and human triggered avalanches are UNLIKELY.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
The accident reports for the four avalanche fatalities are all finalized with some first-hand accounts and worth reading. We all have something to learn so that we can get home safely to our loved ones.
Jan 18 Electric Lake Accident (Skyline area)
Jan 25 Laurel Peak Accident (Moab area)
Feb 7 Circleville Mtn Accident (Southwest area near Beaver, UT)
Feb 9 Chalk Creek Accident (Western Uintas)
Many thanks to these fine gentlemen for helping to install our Beacon Basin on the north end of the Nobletts parking lot. While you're in the hood and waiting for your partner or group, you can keep warm and test your avalanche beacon rescue skills at the same time.... your partners will be stoked.
Weather and Snow
Skies are clear and temperatures about 5 degrees warmer than yesterday at this time, yet still in the single digits. Winds switched to the southwest yesterday, bumped into 30's late in the afternoon, but began relaxing around midnight and currently blow in the teens and lows 20's along the high peaks. It'll be a stunning day in the mountains with six star riding and turning conditions... and keep in mind, that's on a five star rating system :)
Above is hourly data from Trial Lake (9,945') and Windy Peak (10,662'). To view more regional weather stations click here.
JG traveled in lower elevation terrain yesterday, posted this beautifully detailed snowpit profile, and offers his take on snow and avy conditions in this trip report here.
Recent Avalanches
I'm working on details regarding this sled triggered slide in the image above, but here's the message I received. "Definitely not a Green light in the Uintas!!! To witness a person caught in an avalanche is very disturbing. Fortunately this guy was only buried to his arm pits. Couldn't out run it. Unbelievable how fast it happens. Thank God for the good outcome, very easily could have been digging out a body!!!!"
Recent trip reports and avy activity found HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The images above illustrate a tale of two snowpacks.
The top image is an upper elevation, northeast facing slope that avalanched earlier in the season and remains shallow and weak. No es bueno.
The next image shows a deep, strong snowpack that's happy in its own skin.
So here's the deal- we've got a complicated snowpack structure, but without further investigation or an intimate history of the terrian, it'll all look white to us. The problem is, there's several persistent weaknesses buried deep in the pack and these are a concerning because anything "persistent" in the world of snow is slow to heal. While deep dangerous avalanches are becoming harder to trigger, recent avalanches breaking to the ground suggest all we need to do is find a shallow, weak portion of the snowpack, perhaps around a rock or bush that we can't see underneath the snow, collapse the slope (whoomph), and now we're staring down the barrel of a dangerous avalanche. This type of snow structure is particularly dangerous because we don't even have to be on a steep slope in order to trigger a slide... we just need to be connected to it. And here's the deceiving twist, the range is fat and white and the snowpack is gonna feel really strong and supportable. As a matter of fact, we can ride many slopes without incident and think we're good to go.
However, the key to a successful day of riding means avoiding bulls-eye terrain where unmanageable avalanche dragons live, and it's pretty straight-forward. The common theme for all the big avalanches we've seen recently have occurred on steep, upper elevation, wind drifted slopes facing the north half of the compass, along with slopes that avalanched earlier this season and have a shallow snowpack.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
There's no shortage of light density to blow around and it doesn't take strong winds in order to form fresh drifts, sensitive to our additional weight. Today's wind drifts are found mostly along the leeward side of upper elevation ridges,like in the image above, but there could be a few drifts lurking around terrain features like chutes or gullies. In any case, today you'll want to look for and avoid any fat, rounded piece of snow, especially if it sounds hollow like a drum.
Additional Information
Good news in the graphic above.... it's the water! We get a break from the stormy pattern for a few days however. Today look for mostly sunny skies in the morning with clouds increasing late in the day as a weak storm bumps to our north. Temperatures rise into the mid 20's and west-southwest winds bump into the 30's and 40's late in the day. The wind remains a constant theme as temperatures trend warmer during the next several days. A better chance of snow along with increasing winds mid-week looks like a good bet. Unsure to the track and timing of this feature, but should have a better idea for tomorrows update..
General Announcements
The information in this advisory expires 24 hours after the date and time posted, but will be updated by 7:00 AM Monday February 25th, 2019.
If you're getting out and about, please let me know what you're seeing especially if you see or trigger and avalanche. I can be reached at [email protected] or 801-231-2170
It's also a good time to set up one of our very popular avalanche awareness classes. Reach out to me and I'll make it happen.
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.