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Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains

Craig Gordon
Issued by Craig Gordon on
Tuesday morning, February 16, 2021
HEADS UP... IT'S GAME ON AND THIS IS THE REAL DEAL. AVALANCHE CONDITIONS ARE DANGEROUS AND YOU MUST AVOID AVALANCHE TERRAIN AND AVALANCHE RUNOUT ZONES.
Strong winds and heavy snow continue overloading our fragile snowpack and the avalanche danger is nothing to mess with. BOTH HUMAN TRIGGERED AND NATURAL AVALANCHES ARE CERTAIN. In the wind zone, above and near treeline, the avalanche danger borders on EXTREME especially on slopes facing the north half of the compass, and particularly those with an easterly component to their aspect. Make no mistake... because your life depends on it- these are tree snapping, bone crushing, unsurvivable avalanches.

HIGH avalanche danger is found on mid elevation terrain where steep slopes are reaching their tipping point and deep, dangerous, HUMAN TRIGGERED AND NATURAL AVALANCHES ARE VERY LIKELY.
Even lower elevations below treeline are getting in on the act where the avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE and HUMAN TRIGGERED AVALANCHES ARE LIKELY ON ALL SNOW COVERED SLOPES.

Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Avalanche Warning
THE AVALANCHE DANGER RANGES FROM HIGH TO EXTREME ACROSS THE WARNING AREA
IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MST THIS MORNING TO 6 AM MST WEDNESDAY
FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF MUCH OF THE STATE OF UTAH, INCLUDING THE WASATCH RANGE...BEAR RIVER RANGE...UINTA MOUNTAINS...MANTI-SKYLINE...THE FISH LAKE REGION…PAHVANTS…TUSHARS…AND THE CEDAR CITY AREA MOUNTAINS.
VERY DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS EXIST. NATURAL AND HUMAN TRIGGERED AVALANCHES ARE CERTAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. STAY OFF OF AND OUT FROM UNDER SLOPES STEEPER THAN 30 DEGREES
Special Announcements
The final report explaining the avalanche which killed four people Saturday, Feb. 6th in upper Mill Creek Canyon in the central Wasatch Mountains is available HERE. Our deepest condolences go out to the friends and families involved.
Weather and Snow
Nowcast-
Snow trickled in yesterday afternoon, but kicked into overdrive right around dinnertime and it's stomping this morning. So far snow totals are evenly distributed across the range with a solid 8" at the trailheads and 14" as you increase elevation. Winds are generally westerly, blowing in the 30's and 40's along the high ridges and temperatures register in the teens and single digits.
Forecast-
Expect mostly cloudy skies with heavy snow continuing through a good portion of the day. An additional 8"-10" is a solid bet. Westerly winds continue humming along the high peaks, blowing in the 30's and 40's. High temperatures climb into the mid 20's with overnight lows dipping into the teens.
Futurecast-
The graphic above tells the tale of a winter that decided to show up to the party. Snow continues through early Wednesday.
Looking for real-time temps, snow, or wind?
Click here and then on the "western Uinta" tab for western Uinta specific, weather station network.
Recent Avalanches
Sunday, I crawled around this large slide in Upper Weber Canyon, which I just recently learned was triggered by a snowcat working on a road above the ridgeline. The big take home is... this slide broke deep and wide, to the dirt, and ran for a tremendous distance.
In the past two weeks, many large avalanches were triggered across the range including a near miss at Moffit Peak with an amazing viddy HERE.
Recent avalanche activity is found HERE.

More obs and trip reports found here.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
I'll keep it simple.... it's no mystery, the structure of our snowpack is a mess. As a matter of fact, many slopes throughout the range are unsupportable as they harbor layers of weak, sugary, faceted snow found near the bottom of the snowpack (see photo below). On its own accord that's not a big deal, but overnight, winter returned from its hiatus, deciding to deliver a respectable amount of snow, water, and wind. That big sudden thump on the snowpack is gonna instantly wake it up, it'll be cranky, and it's ticked off by this rapid change. And mid and upper elevation terrain facing the north half of the compass is most suspect, as many slopes are at their tipping point, while others wait for a trigger like us to roll along and knock the legs out from underneath. In either case, you can trigger avalanches by simply traveling underneath a steep slope slope, so part of today's avalanche strategy must include staying off and out from under steep terrain and avoiding avalanche runout zones.
The viddy below demonstrates how there's no structure or base to our snowpack.
The photo below clearly shows the weak faceted snow near the ground. There is also a weak layer of facets in the middle of the snowpack on which avalanches can also fracture.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
A 24 hour data dump from Windy Peak (10,662) clearly shows an early afternoon bump in the ridgetop winds, which continued blowing steadily throughout the night.
Winds are always the big game changer in the Uinta's and the two shot combo of storm snow and stiff winds have no problem whipping up cohesive wind drifts which will react to our additional weight. Found mostly on the leeward side of upper elevation ridges, also be on the lookout for drifts forming lower downslope than we usually expect to see and around terrain features like chutes, gullies, and road cuts. In addition, you'll want to look for and avoid any fat, rounded, piece of snow, especially if it sounds hollow like a drum. And remember- triggering even a small wind drift offers the potential to quickly get out of hand if that piece of snow breaks into deeper buried weak layers as it crashes onto the slope below.
Parked near a ridge in lower Weber Canyon, Michael J's sled got nearly buried by wind drifted snow within just a few hours yesterday... and that was before the storm got going!
Avalanche Problem #3
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Just the shear volume of new snow creates unusual avalanche conditions even at lower elevations where we snowshoe, sled, trailrun, or take the dog for a walk. That said... any steep snow covered slope needs to be avoid. And remember- even a small avalanche has huge consequence when snow stacks up deeply in a terrain trap like a gully, streambed, or road cut.
Additional Information
Last week, Andy, Joey, and I set up the avalanche beacon training park at the Nobletts trailhead. There is also one at the Bear River Trailhead that Ted Scroggin set up. These beacon parks have pre-buried beacons that you can turn on/off with a control panel. It only takes a few minutes to refresh your beacon searching skills at one of these places.
I will update this forecast by 7:00 AM tomorrow, Wednesday, February 17th.
Your observations are important, so please let me know what you're seeing... click HERE and contribute to this amazing community based program
General Announcements
If you see or trigger an avalanche or just wanna let me know what you're seeing you can reach me directly at 801-231-2170 or [email protected]
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.