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Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains

Craig Gordon
Issued by Craig Gordon on
Wednesday morning, February 17, 2021
HEADS UP... IT'S GAME ON AND THIS IS THE REAL DEAL. AVALANCHE CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY DANGEROUS. Make no mistake... because your life depends on it- these are tree snapping, bone crushing, unsurvivable avalanches.
Recent winds and heavy snow overloaded our fragile snowpack and the avalanche danger is nothing to mess with. DEEP, DANGEROUS, HUMAN TRIGGERED AVALANCHES ARE VERY LIKELY. In the wind zone, the avalanche danger is HIGH on slopes facing the north half of the compass, particularly those with an easterly component to their aspect.

While the avalanche characteristics might seem more manageable, the results are the same and HIGH avalanche danger is also found on mid elevation terrain where steep slopes have reached their tipping point. HUMAN TRIGGERED AVALANCHES BREAKING TO THE GROUND ARE VERY LIKELY.
Even lower elevations below treeline are getting in on the act where the avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE and HUMAN TRIGGERED AVALANCHES ARE LIKELY ON ALL SNOW COVERED SLOPES.

Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Avalanche Warning
THE AVALANCHE DANGER RANGES FROM HIGH TO EXTREME ACROSS THE WARNING AREA
IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MST THIS MORNING TO 6 AM MST THURSDAY
FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF MUCH OF THE STATE OF UTAH, INCLUDING THE WASATCH RANGE...BEAR RIVER RANGE...UINTA MOUNTAINS...MANTI-SKYLINE...THE FISH LAKE REGION…PAHVANTS…TUSHARS…AND THE CEDAR CITY AREA MOUNTAINS.
VERY DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS EXIST. NATURAL AND HUMAN TRIGGERED AVALANCHES ARE CERTAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. STAY OFF OF AND OUT FROM UNDER SLOPES STEEPER THAN 30 DEGREES
Special Announcements
The final report explaining the avalanche which killed four people Saturday, Feb. 6th in upper Mill Creek Canyon in the central Wasatch Mountains is available HERE. Our deepest condolences go out to the friends and families involved.
Weather and Snow
Nowcast-
Wow... great storm for the eastern front as North Slope storm totals register right around 16" of snow with 1.3" H2O. The south half of the range clocks in with slightly less totals, but with nearly a foot of snow and right around 1" of H2O, it's still a respectable showing. Under mostly cloudy skies, a few light snow showers linger over the area and it's cold as trailhead temperatures kick the mercury into the teens. Along the high ridges west and northwest winds blow in the 20's which delivers a finger numbing windchill to -16 degrees... so you might wanna hold off on that ridgetop wind site you've been itching to work on all winter :)
Forecast-
In general the storm winds down, but we can still expect a few lingering snow flurries along with west-northwest winds blowing in the 20's near the high peaks. High temperatures have trouble creeping into the low 20's and overnight lows under partly skies crater in the single digits.
Futurecast-
A break in the action is slated for Thursday with another storm setting its sights for our area to round out the work week and linger into early Saturday.
Looking for real-time temps, snow, or wind?
Click here and then on the "western Uinta" tab for western Uinta specific, weather station network.
Recent Avalanches
Sunday, I crawled around this large slide in Upper Weber Canyon, which I just recently learned was triggered by a snowcat working on a road above the ridgeline. The big take home is... this slide broke deep and wide, to the dirt, and ran for a tremendous distance.
In the past two weeks, many large avalanches were triggered across the range including a near miss at Moffit Peak with an amazing viddy HERE.
Recent avalanche activity is found HERE.

More obs and trip reports found here.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Yes... that's snowpro Andy Nassetta looking rather small as he investigates a freshly triggered avalanche in upper Weber Canyon. Breaking to old snow near the ground, this is the type of avalanche dragon we're dealing with today.
I'll keep it simple.... it's no mystery, the structure of our snowpack is a mess. As a matter of fact, many slopes throughout the range are unsupportable as they harbor layers of weak, sugary, faceted snow found near the bottom of the snowpack. On its own accord that's not a big deal, but Monday's storm delivered a respectable amount of snow, water, and wind. That big sudden thump on the snowpack was a rapid change and the snowpack is WOKE! Mid and upper elevation terrain facing the north half of the compass is most suspect, as many slopes are at their tipping point, while others wait for a trigger like us to roll along and knock the legs out from underneath. In either case, you can trigger avalanches by simply traveling underneath a steep slope slope, so part of today's avalanche strategy must include staying off and out from under steep terrain and avoiding avalanche runout zones.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Once triggered, a fresh wind drift can quickly get out of hand as it pulls the rug out from under the snowpack resulting in a much larger slide than you bargained for.
Winds are always the big game changer in the Uinta's and Monday's two shot combo of storm snow and stiff winds had no problem whipping up cohesive wind drifts which will react to our additional weight. Found mostly on the leeward side of upper elevation ridges, also be on the lookout for drifts forming lower downslope than we usually expect to see and around terrain features like chutes, gullies, and road cuts. In addition, you'll want to look for and avoid any fat, rounded, piece of snow, especially if it sounds hollow like a drum. And remember- triggering even a small wind drift offers the potential to quickly get out of hand if that piece of snow breaks into deeper buried weak layers as it crashes onto the slope below.
Avalanche Problem #3
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Even a small avalanche like in the image above, is enough snow to boss you around and potentially bury you in a terrain trap.
Just the shear volume of new snow creates unusual avalanche conditions even at lower elevations where we snowshoe, sled, trailrun, or take the dog for a walk. That said... any steep snow covered slope needs to be avoid. And remember- even a small avalanche has huge consequence when snow stacks up deeply in a terrain trap like a gully, streambed, or road cut.
Additional Information
Tthe avalanche beacon training park at the Nobletts trailhead is up and running. There is also one at the Bear River Trailhead that Ted Scroggin set up. These beacon parks have pre-buried beacons that you can turn on/off with a control panel. It only takes a few minutes to refresh your beacon searching skills at one of these places.
We will update this forecast by 7:00 AM tomorrow, Thursday, February 18th.
Your observations are important, so please let me know what you're seeing... click HERE and contribute to this amazing community based program
General Announcements
If you see or trigger an avalanche or just wanna let me know what you're seeing you can reach me directly at 801-231-2170 or [email protected]
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.