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Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains

Craig Gordon
Issued by Craig Gordon for
Friday, January 5, 2024
Heads up... a series of storms headed our way changes the landscape and the days of green light avy danger are in the rear view-
For today, MODERATE danger is found in the wind zone above treeline on steep, upper elevation slopes around the compass. Human triggered avalanches are POSSIBLE, especially on and around terrain features with recent deposits of wind drifted snow. As today's storm evolves, I expect avalanches will break deeper and wider than we might expect.
Lose the wind and you lose the problem. Great riding and generally LOW avalanche danger is found in wind sheltered terrain and at lower elevations, particularly slopes facing the south half of the compass where human triggered avalanches are UNLIKELY. Remember.... it's still thin out there so tread lightly. Slamming into a buried treasure like a rock or stump poses a greater hazard near the trailheads.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
Nowcast- A weak storm slid through the Uinta zone overnight, delivering a thin coat of white paint... just an inch or two for the south half of the range and you'll find similar new snow depths at most trailheads. If you're looking for more of a cushion underfoot, perhaps consider grabbing a day pass closer to the North Slope where you'll be treated to just over 5" of low density snow. In either case, it'll feel more winter-like as you step out the door with current temperatures registering in the teens down low and single digits near the ridges. Couple in winds blowing from the west and northwest at 10-20 mph near the high peaks and you've got windchill values clocking in at -5 degrees F or 252 degrees K... for all those Kelvin fans out there :)
Forecast- Look for mostly cloudy skies with a good shot of snow materializing this morning, becoming more widespread and heavy late this afternoon. 4"-8" looks like a good bet before things wind down late tonight. High temperatures claw their way into the low 20's and west-northwest winds bump into the 30's near the highest ridges. Overnight lows under partly cloudy skies dip into the single digits.
Futurecast- Now the good stuff... a break in the action for Saturday morning with a solid shot of snow moving through the area Saturday evening. The heaviest snow materializes overnight Saturday into Sunday morning. I'll have a better handle on the storm evolution and run of show for tomorrow's update, but early reviews look promising.
Our good friends and long standing partners at the SLC NWS spell out the storm timing in the graphic above.
Recent Avalanches
On Monday, Mark captured this facet-slufff-alanche triggered by a skier on the very steep east face of Moffit Peak, reflecting just how weak the surface snow has grown in the past couple weeks.
Trip reports and the latest observations are found HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Today's most obvious avalanche dragon is the low density snow conspiring with a little bit of wind, creating touchy drifts on steep slopes above treeline. Indeed, fresh wind drifts are gonna be sensitive and react to our additional weight. Starting off shallow and predictable this morning, I bet conditions change rapidly as the storm evolves. Found mostly in the wind-zone, today you'll wanna look for and avoid fat, rounded pillows of snow and think... it's still pretty thin out there and even a small slide could take me for a body-bruising ride.
In addition, look and listen for signs of unstable snow like shooting cracks and whoomphing sounds. And remember the biggest clue to avalanches is... AVALANCHES! Yeah, if you're seeing slides on the same kinda slopes you wanna ride that's Mother Nature giving you a big heads up and delivering a Get Out of Jail free card.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Rounding the bend and quickly gaining ground is our second avalanche problem child (PWL) and it's in it to win it.
Let's face it... there's no shortage of weak surface snow formed during the December dry-spell. From near surface faceting to surface hoar it's been a fun, run with no shortage of loud pow. Left on its own accord weak surface snow is a blast to ride in, but can morph into a deceptively tricky avalanche problem when it's buried and preserved. Unfortunately, our last couple of storms slid into homeplate with very light winds, and this curve ball buried and preserved the weak snow, delivering an unusual setup for us.
As new snow starts to stack up today and if winds bump even the slightest in velocity, avalanches will begin failing on the December drought layer. I don't think the entire range lights up in an instant. But with a series of storms headed our way, a slow burn creates increasingly tricky avy conditions as snow, water, and wind stack up and tip the scales.
Mark posted a great ob from his Moffit Peak travels Monday and explains the method of the mountain madness HERE.
Additional Information
The Uinta weather station network was upgraded this summer and all that real-time info is found HERE. Simply click on "western Uinta" tab and then "weather stations" tab.
We are always looking for snow and avalanche observations or just general riding conditions. So... if you see something, say something. You can reach me directly at [email protected] or 801-231-2170.
Also, if you're looking for more avy education opportunities for yourself, your crew, or your club please don't hesitate to reach out to me and we'll find a presentation, class, or clinic for ya!
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Issued at 0430 on Friday, January 5th this forecast will be updated by 0700 Saturday, January 6th, 2024.
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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