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Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains

Craig Gordon
Issued by Craig Gordon for
Monday, January 28, 2019
WE'VE DODGED A FEW BULLETS THIS WEEK AND OUR LUCK IS RUNNING OUT.... DECEPTIVELY TRICKY AVALANCHE CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE EASTERN FRONT
In the wind zone at and above treeline, you'll find you'll find CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger. Human triggered avalanches are PROBABLE on all steep wind drifted slopes, particularly those with an easterly component to their aspect. Any avalanche that breaks into deeper buried weak layers near the ground will result in a scary and very dangerous avalanche that will instantly ruin your day.
MODERATE avalanche danger exists on steep, mid elevation slopes facing the north half of the compass and human triggered avalanches are POSSIBLE.
Here's your exit strategy.... lower elevation terrain might ride a bit shallow, but still offers cold snow and a generally LOW avalanche danger.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
Sad news to report-
Two Utah men died in avalanches on Friday - Tommy Hawkins of Layton, Utah (snowmobiling near upper Palisades Lake, Idaho) and Scott Pehrson, of Monticello, UT (snowmobiling in the eastern La Sals, UT)
Weather and Snow
Clouds passed by the region overnight and a weak, moisture starved cold front wiggled through the area while you were sleeping.... and I was waking up. Currently, skies are clearing and temperatures in the teens. Westerly winds gusted into the 40's for a few hours after sunset, relaxed for a minute or two, but just started bumping into the mid 30's early this morning. Recent winds have jacked the surface snow in our big, open terrain and high elevation bowls. However, lose some elevation and you'll find riding and turning conditions are excellent right now on wind sheltered, mid elevation slopes.
Above is hourly data from Trial Lake (9,945') and Windy Peak (10,662'). To view more regional weather stations click here.
Recent Avalanches
It's been a very busy week in the western Uinta's with a handful of large, snowmobile triggered slides, resulting in a wrecked sled and few close calls that have experienced riders re-evaluating their terrain choices.
4' feet deep and 500' wide, the slide above was triggered yesterday near Hoyt Peak. We are of course happy everyone came out unscathed, but we're running out of luck, and there's not many empty chambers left.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
This snowmobile triggered slide in the image above from earlier in the week in Upper Moffit Basin, is the type of avalanche dragon we're dealing with. Once initiated, any avalanche that breaks into deeper buried weak layers in the pack will quickly get out of hand.
Great work by these two men-
Yesterday, Bo and Andy rode out of Chalk Creek and visited Friday's, Humpy Creek, sled triggered avalanche. They have a most excellent trip report and snowpack evaluation, which is found here. And below is their take on persistent slabs, stability, and riding habits.
"A Persistent Slab Avalanche problem should make you pay attention and approach slopes with caution. Avalanches are breaking 2'-6' feet deep and hundreds of feet wide throughout the Uinta Range. Last weeks storms and wind events added a significant load of snow that stressed weak layers in our snowpack. Some slopes avalanched naturally early last week- during the storm, other slopes are hanging in balance waiting to be triggered. With a Persistent Slab Avalanche problem, it is unlikely that you will experience any obvious signs of instability while out riding (such as collapsing or cracking) The most important thing to pay attention to is the fact that there have been multiple human-triggered avalanches over the past 3 days throughout the range."
BOOM... NAILED IT!
Yes... we're dealing with a much different avalanche problem than we usually see in the western Uinta's and because of the snowpack structure (strong snow on a thin layer of weak, sugary snow) you don't have to be climbing a slope in order to trigger a large slide. As a matter of fact, with all the recent avalanche activity we're seeing, here's the common theme.... riders are knocking the legs out from underneath the slab and avalanches are getting triggered from low on the slope, in relatively low angle angle terrain. This puts us in a dangerous position on the slope and right in the avalanche cross hairs. So even if we're playing in low angle terrain we need to look around a see if we're connected to steep terrain above or adjacent to where we're riding. We've had multiple near misses and a few close calls this week, and here's the reality.... it's just a matter of time before we run out of luck.
It doesn't mean we can't ride, but it's tricky out there and here's why. Many steep slopes throughout the range experienced a widespread natural avalanche cycle late last week, but recent snow and wind has filled in much of that evidence. So today it's all gonna look white and that's the challenge. You can ride some slopes without incident (perhaps they already slid) and think you're good to go, while an adjacent slope that remained intact throughout the storm, is just waiting for a trigger like us to roll up and tip the balance.
Of course you wanna know... "how do we manage an unmanageable avalanche?" Well with all the great riding out there and plenty of alternative options, we simply avoid the terrain where it exists. You know the drill by now.... steep, rocky, wind drifted slopes, especially those facing the north half of the compass.
This viddy clearly illustrates our current setup. Bo and Andy commented, "In some test pits it was very easy to initiate failures and in others, it was more difficult. The common theme among all of the tests was that they were breaking deep in the snowpack on old snow. This tells me that in some areas, the avalanches might be less sensitive to trigger but if you trigger an avalanche it will break deep."
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Recent winds have been all over the place and there's no shortage of snow to blow around and form fresh, stiff drifts along the leeward side of upper elevation ridges and around chutes and gullies. Don't get fooled into thinking today's fresh drifts are the only avalanche dragon you're dealing with. Underneath the new drifts are several layers of old, connected drifts, that once triggered, will break deeper and wider than you might expect. Today you'll want to utilize all the awareness tools in your quiver. Look for obvious clues to unstable snow like shooting cracks out in front of our skis, board, or sled. Also remember to avoid any fat, rounded piece of snow especially if it sounds hollow like a drum. And finally the hugest clue... recent avalanches on the same kind of terrain you want to ride on.
A recently windloaded slope reacted to the additional weight of a rider yesterday on the south half of the range near Heber Mountain. Remember to look around as you ride today and think, the hugest clue to unstable snow is recent avalanches on the same kind of terrain you want to ride on.
Additional Information
Expect partly cloudy skies and cooler temperatures, with highs reaching into the mid 20's, as a weak disturbance crosses the area this morning. Northerly winds gust into the 40's, but decrease this afternoon behind this disturbance. A dry northwesterly flow remains in place tonight and tomorrow. Perhaps a change to more storminess by weeks end.
General Announcements
The information in this advisory expires 24 hours after the date and time posted, but will be updated by 7:00 AM Tuesday January 29th, 2019.
If you're getting out and about, please let me know what you're seeing especially if you see or trigger and avalanche. I can be reached at [email protected] or 801-231-2170
It's also a good time to set up one of our very popular avalanche awareness classes. Reach out to me and I'll make it happen.
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.