UDOT PLANNED AVALANCHE CLOSURES!!

Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains

Craig Gordon
Issued by Craig Gordon for
Saturday, January 15, 2022
Triggering a very large avalanche remains possible above treeline, especially in steep, rocky terrain where the avalanche danger is MODERATE on slopes facing northwest, north, northeast as well as east and southeast. All other slopes have a LOW avalanche danger and triggering an avalanche is unlikely.

It has been a remarkable season, and we're incredibly lucky to have such a deep, supportable snowpack that is generally safe on many slopes. This situation is a rare thing most years in the Uintas. Many people have commented that conditions right now remind them of what we typically see in late February or March.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Weather and Snow
NOWCAST-
Above the valley gunk a brilliant light is cast on our mountains this morning as we edge closer to a full, Wolf Moon. Temperatures are inverted with ridgetops registering in the mid and upper 20's whilst trailhead locations report in the single digits. Northerly winds bumped to 30 mph for a few hours around dinnertime Friday, but backed off through the night and currently blow in the 20's near the high peaks. On a go-anywhere base, it's a great day for exploring our remarkable backyard.
FORECAST-
It'll be a beautiful day in the mountains with mostly sunny skies and temperatures climbing into the mid 30's. North and northwest winds blow 15-25 mph along the high peaks. Overnight lows dip into the teens.
FUTURECAST-
High pressure homesteads over the region delivering sunny skies, warm temperatures, and light winds. Unfortunately, there's no big storms in sight.
In between old tracks in heavily trafficked zones and crusty snow on the sunny slopes, the snow remains cold and creamy on most shady terrain in the Uintas. It may not be deep but it's still soft with fun riding and easy skiing and seamless trail breaking.
Coverage is incredible for January 14th! Snow depths are about 3 feet at 8000 ft and at upper elevations snow depths are consistently 5-6 feet on all aspects.

Looking for real-time temps, snow, or wind?
Click HERE and then on the "western Uinta" tab for western Uinta specific, weather station network.
Recent Avalanches
The last reported avalanche in the Uintas was just over a week ago. It's been quiet since then.

Click HERE for a list of recent avalanches.
A list of all other observations is found HERE

Your input is vital and we're interested in what you're seeing. Please contribute to this great community resource and go here to fill out an observation.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Summary/history of the problem-
  • Snow fell in October & early November
  • Dry weather from early November to early December weakened and faceted that snow which became our problem child, the "persistent weak layer" or PWL.
  • Early season snow melted off on south facing slopes
  • Heavy snowfall in December buried the weak layer (PWL) and caused avalanches on it
Current state of the snowpack-
Sure, all the ingredients for an avalanche exist. We've got a weak layer near the ground with a very dense, hard slab of snow, now 3'-5' in thickness, resting on top of it. So... why aren't we seeing avalanches? What's missing is new additional weight and stress from recent snowfall, water weight, or strong winds. The last storm rolled through 7 days ago, and the last reported avalanche was 9 days ago.
The good news-
The weak snow has gained A LOT of strength and it's hard to impact this sugary layer, now buried very deeply. Triggering a slide on slopes with a deep, strong, uniform snowpack is unlikely.
What to watch out for-
The shaky foundation remains most suspect and easiest to impact in upper elevation, rocky, alpine terrain above treeline. In other words... where the pack is thin and weak, maybe around a bush or a rock we can't see ,barely covered over with snow. In terrain with these characteristics you can get an unwelcome surprise and still trigger an avalanche.
Below is Mark's video from Thursday on the north side of Notch Mountain. Ted and Mark found nearly identical conditions that I found further south the day before in this video.
Master observer and snowpit profile artist JG, was recently in upper Weber Canyon and found similar conditions... a deep, strong snowpack that is giving us more confidence to start stepping out into steeper terrain and tagging bigger objectives.
*ALSO of note - I too recently stomped around in upper Weber Canyon, wanting to look at terrain that previously avalanched, because sometimes those slopes flush out and leave behind a shallow snowpack, becoming future problems or what we call repeater slopes. But here's the good news- most of the terrain that slid during December storms, immediately refilled with snow and they didn't have time to develop weak layers. For that reason, they have a slightly shallower snowpack, but the weak layer has become stronger on those slopes just like on ones that didn't slide.
Additional Information
Yesterday, we installed the Beacon Basin training park at Nobletts Trailhead. Huge thanks to Wasatch and Summit County SAR, along with BCI for all the support making this potentially life saving resource available to our entire community.
Your observations are important, so please let me know what you're seeing... click HERE and contribute to this amazing community based program
General Announcements
The information in this forecast expires 24 hours after the day and time posted, but will be updated by 07:00 Sunday January 16th.
Before it gets too crazy, now is the time to book an avalanche awareness presentation for your group, club, or posse. You can reach me directly at 801-231-2170 or [email protected]
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.