Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik for
Thursday, April 14, 2022
The overall avalanche danger is MODERATE today.
Freshly formed drifts should be approached with caution as they may still be sensitive to the weight of a person.
More dangerous conditions exist due to lingering concerns with a layer of loose sugary snow that formed mid winter.
There is still a chance that a person could trigger a large and deadly avalanche on northerly facing slopes steeper than 30˚ above about 10,000'.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
Current Conditions
This cold snow storm has been a real treat. Riding conditions have been quite good. Skies stayed cloudy on Wednesday with periods of light snowfall happening all day. The snow remained dry above about 9500' when I left the mountains around 5pm. It was a bit windy from the southwest during the day which was blowing the snow around. It still looks windy along the higher terrain but the wind has slowed a bit in the mid and lower elevations. Overnight temperatures were in the teens to low 20s.
Mountain Weather
It looks like clouds should stay over the mountains today with high temperatures into the low 30s and moderate speed southwest wind. Friday will have fewer clouds and be slightly warmer. Saturday is slightly warmer yet but then a small storm impulse will move through later in the day which may bring a couple inches of new snow. Looking longer term, I'm not seeing any significant storms that will affect our area.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The most dangerous situation is the chance that a person could trigger a deep avalanche that breaks into a Persistent Weak Layer that formed mid winter. It is buried 3 to 4 feet down. It should be gaining strength. We have not seen any avalanche activity for 11 days now. That said, it is a very unusual layer and I am still wary of it. Places where a person might trigger a large avalanche are northerly facing very steep slopes above 10,000'. I'm hoping to be able to get into this terrain today and Friday and see if I can come up with any significant information that might tell us how much of a concern this problem is still.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The snow has been blown around in the higher terrain. You will find places where fresh drifts have formed. So far, I have not noticed that they are very sensitive. I have not seen any cracking over the last couple of days. However, poor visibility has limited my travel so I haven't been into real serious terrain. Continue to molest any fresh drifts you come across that are on small test slopes to see if you can get them to crack out. After doing this at a few different locations you will figure out if the new snow drifts pose much threat.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.