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Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik for
Wednesday, March 9, 2022
INCREASING AVALANCHE DANGER TODAY!!
A CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger still exists on the Manti Skyline.
Human triggered avalanches are likely on steep upper elevation northwest, north, northeast and east facing slopes.
Fresh drifts of wind deposited snow will be scattered about. Avoid any fresh drifts that are on steep slopes.
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Weather and Snow
Current Conditions
It's been an interesting start to the storm. None of the weather stations along the west side of the Skyline in any of the canyons have picked up any significant snow. However, my station at the Electric Lake dam has received 6 inches and the Red Pine Ridge station at Potters Ponds is measuring 4 to 5". I don't have an explanation for this pattern. Wind is moderate to strong along the higher ridges from the west northwest. It doesn't seem too bad lower in the canyons. Overnight temperatures were steady at about 20˚F.
Mountain Weather
We should get a decent little shot of snow today. I'm anticipating 4 to 8 inches of new snow. West northwest wind will increase in speed and may be a bit strong during the afternoon. Temperatures should stay in the low 20s. Thursday looks cloudy and cold and then clouds start to break and we'll see pretty nice weather through the weekend.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Today's snow and wind will increase the chance for triggering an avalanche that breaks into the faceted Persistent Weak Layer of snow that formed Jan/Feb and is now buried about 2' deep. This problem exists mainly above 9500' on steep slopes that face northwest, north, northeast and east. This layer is VERY weak still and is more than capable of causing deadly avalanches. All we can do is avoid this terrain until we see the weak layer gain strength. The problem is that it takes a long time for this type of sugary faceted weak layer to gain strength and become stable.
Additional Information
SKYLINE AVALANCHES & OBSERVATIONS
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INSTAGRAM: SKYLINE_AVALANCHE
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This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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