Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik for
Tuesday, March 8, 2022
A CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger still exists on the Manti Skyline.
Human triggered avalanches are likely on steep upper elevation northwest, north, northeast and east facing slopes.
The avalanche danger is much lower on the rest of the terrain. You can safely travel around if you avoid the described terrain.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
Current Conditions
Cold temperatures and cloud cover kept the new powder in excellent condition for riding on Monday. West wind was light to moderate with a small amount of drifting snow noted. Overnight temperatures dropped back to around 10˚F. West wind has bumped up in speed slightly along the higher terrain. It looks pretty light still down in the canyons.
Mountain Weather
I am anticipating cloud cover again today with high temperatures around 20 again. West wind will be moderate in speed along the ridges but perhaps increasing in speed slightly as the day goes on. A storm moves in tonight and will last through Wednesday. It is looking a bit better for snow and water numbers. I'm thinking 8 to 12" is a good guess on expected new snow amounts.
Recent Avalanches
My group remotely triggered two avalanches on Monday in Six Mile Canyon. The first one was triggered from around 100 yards away and the second from a much farther distance. Buried sugary faceted snow from Jan/Feb was the weak layer.
The piles of debris were impressive. The second larger slide had a pile of debris that looked like a bulldozer had pushed snow into a pile. It was no less than 15 feet deep.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Yesterday's remotely triggered avalanches told me everything I needed to know. The persistent weak layer is obviously still active and producing dangerous slides. Here's the scary thing though. As I travel around, I really do not see any obvious red flags. There are no recent natural avalanches visible. I did not notice much cracking. The wind wasn't drifting all that much snow. I was on a snowmachine Monday so I did not notice if there was any collapsing happening under my machine. I'm guessing that if I were on skis I would experience some collapsing which is a huge red flag. The point is here is that conditions don't seem very dangerous. Make no mistake that they are indeed quite dangerous on those steep upper elevation more northerly facing slopes.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.