Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik for
Sunday, March 6, 2022
There is a CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger in the upper elevation more northerly facing terrain.
Human triggered slab avalanches are likely.
If you avoid steep upper elevation northerly facing terrain, the avalanche danger is dramatically lower.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
Current Conditions
4 to 6 inches of snow fell over the last 24 hours. This brings storm totals up to about 10 inches. Friday's snow was fairly high density. Saturday's snow is lower density powder. Temperatures really cooled off with most locations dropping down to about 10˚F. There was a short period of moderate speed ridgetop southwest wind on Saturday. It slowed way down again.
Mountain Weather
As the tail end of the storm sweeps through, the flow will shift northwest and we should see one more period of light snowfall this afternoon with a few inches of accumulation possible. Temperatures will be in the mid teens and west northwest wind will increase slightly but will generally stay light to moderate in speed. We should see some clearing Monday with continued cold temperatures. Tuesday looks cloudy then the next storm is shaping up for Wednesday.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Human triggered avalanches breaking into a Persistent Weak Layer buried 1 to 2 feet deep is the biggest threat today. This is most likely on steep slopes above 9500' that face northwest through east. I did not experience any cracking or collapsing on Saturday but snowpit stability test results were poor with easy failure and propagation in the buried weak layer of loose sugary facets. We need to accept that steep upper elevation northerly facing terrain is off limits until the snowpack stability improves.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.