UDOT PLANNED AVALANCHE CLOSURES!!

Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik for
Thursday, March 17, 2022
The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on steep upper elevation northwest, north, northeast, and east facing slopes.
Continue to avoid being on or below those slopes.
The avalanche danger is MUCH lower outside of the terrain mentioned above.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
Current Conditions
The central Skyline picked up 2 to 4 inches of new snow from yesterday's small storm. The north end as well as the very southern end didn't get much. West northwest wind was blowing a bit and is showing signs of slowing. It probably stirred up the new snow somewhat especially near the ridges. Temperatures have been cooling and are down into the mid teens.
Mountain Weather
We'll see mostly clear skies this morning with some high clouds moving in this afternoon. Temperatures will get up to around 30. We'll see some clouds the next couple of days with gradually warming temperatures each day. The next chance for snow is a small storm Sunday night. It doesn't look all that impressive but might be good for a few inches.
Recent Avalanches
No new avalanche activity was reported from Tuesday.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The Persistent Weak Layer of sugary faceted snow that formed in Jan/Feb and has caused a prolonged avalanche cycle is still your main concern. Large human triggered avalanches are still likely on steep upper elevation northwest, north, northeast and east facing slopes.

Persistent Weak Layer stabilization summary:
When will this layer stabilize? This is unknown. What we do know is that these types of layers are slow to stabilize and gain strength. They often produce avalanches long after you might think they will. Here's what I am looking for when I go out and analyze this layer for signs of stabilization:
  • An increase in the hardness of the sugary layer. This has happened to a certain extent but not even close to the point where it needs to be.
  • The slab on top of the sugary layer to increase in strength. This has also happened somewhat but not enough yet. It would be nice if we could get a few more big storms to help this out. More weight also helps compress the sugary layer. One thing we have going for us is the warmer springtime temperatures. This will help in strengthening both the slab and the underlying sugar faster than it would happen in mid winter when temperatures remain cold.
  • Snowpit test results can not show propagation, which they all do right now. That means that when doing snowpit tests, if they are producing a smooth planer break, avalanches breaking into that layer are still possible. I have had test results that I would consider stubborn yet they still broke clean. There were also avalanches triggered that day.
  • I'd like to see a large and windy snowstorm with no avalanche activity. Like two feet with wind. If the snowpack can take a good "thump" like that without producing avalanches and the rest of the things I mentioned have happened, we can call the snowpack stable. Until then, we watch.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.