Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik for
Friday, March 11, 2022
HUMAN TRIGGERED AVALANCHES ARE LIKELY TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND!
There is a CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger on the Manti Skyline.
Upper elevation northwest, north, northeast and east facing slopes are the most dangerous.
Continue to avoid this terrain until we see some improvement in stability. This will take some time still.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
Current Conditions
Riding conditions are excellent right now. Cold weather and cloud cover has kept the new snow pristine on all aspects. There was some ridgetop wind on Thursday and you'll find some areas that have been damaged as well as some fresh drifts. Temperatures dropped to around 0˚F overnight. Generally, the wind is light to moderate in speed from the west.
Mountain Weather
We have a couple of nice days lined up with plenty of sun, high temperatures around 20˚F today and 30˚F Saturday. I'm thinking northwest wind might be a bit breezy in places along the ridges today. Nothing too strong but noticeable. The next chance for snow is a small storm Sunday night. The pattern looks somewhat active still with more storms on the horizon.
Recent Avalanches
The last known avalanches on the Skyline were human triggered on Monday. There was a close call in the Bountiful mountains on Thursday. Riders that were very familiar with the area had one person get caught and carried. He was not buried or injured. They all had the proper rescue gear and were only putting one person on the slope at a time. This was still a close call (too close!!) and the reason I mention it is because we have similar conditions on the Skyline and something like this is likely here over the next few days.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The buried Persistent Weak Layer of sugary facets that formed in Jan/Feb is still active and very much a concern. Dangerous conditions exist on upper elevation northwest, north, northeast and east facing terrain. Here are the red flags that I've seen recently:
  • Recent avalanches - my group triggered two on Monday
  • Collapsing - we experienced numerous collapses (whoomping) of the snowpack on Thursday. This information alone tells me the weak layer is still sensitive and dangerous.
  • Wind drifted snow - there has been enough wind to drift and deposit snow. This enhances slab formation. It makes conditions more dangerous especially in conjunction with a buried weak layer like we have.
  • Poor snowpack structure - it is easy to dig down and find the weak layer of sugary snow around 2 feet deep. Snow stability test results remain poor on this layer.
The tricky thing is that unless you are really paying attention out there, you may not see any obvious signs of danger. You most likely won't see any natural avalanches from this storm. If you are on a machine, you may not notice any collapsing underneath you. You need to dig to see the layer of weak snow. All you may see is miles of untracked powder calling your name. Be aware that many steep slopes are just waiting for you to get on them and trigger an avalanche.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.