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Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Thursday morning, December 28, 2023
The avalanche danger remains generally LOW. Human triggered avalanches are unlikely at this time.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
Current Conditions: Same story, different day. Temperatures made it into the mid 30s on Wednesday with light northwest wind. Wind bumped up in speed very slightly overnight and low temperatures were in the mid to upper 20s.
Mountain Weather: Over the next couple of days temperatures will be mild with highs in the mid to upper 30s and mostly clear skies. Moderate speed wind from the north will decrease as the day goes on. There's no real storm in sight for at least another week. Models depict a snow storm around the 7th but I have zero confidence in this solution. The big picture continues to look the same to me which is a ridge of high pressure dominating the west with an occasional weak storm that attempts to drop through.
Recent Avalanches
My partner and I stumbled onto another small avalanche that looks like it released during our last little storm just before Christmas. It is similar to another nearby avalanche. Steep easterly facing wind loaded slope right below a ridgeline. The big question for me is whether old faceted snow was the weak layer. After looking at these slides it's my conclusion that these are just run of the mill wind slabs. No monkey business, just wind drifting snow onto a steep slope until it fractured.
More details are here:
SCOTTY'S AVALANCHE
MEADOWS AVALANCHE
Ad
Avalanche Problem #1
Normal Caution
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
There isn't much going on as far as avalanches are concerned. The snowpack continues to deteriorate with more and more sugary snow forming. You can travel around without too much concern about avalanches. I got into some very steep starting zones on Wednesday to do some snow analysis and I was quite confident I would not trigger an avalanche. That said, I would still avoid any obvious wind drifts on very steep slopes.
For a detailed description of what's gone on so far this season, check the SKYLINE SEASONAL SNOWPACK SUMMARY.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.