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Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Friday morning, January 23, 2026

The avalanche danger remains generally LOW on the Manti Skyline. There is very little concern for any avalanche activity at this time.

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Weather and Snow

General Conditions: Stagnant snow and weather conditions persist. Surface conditions are a complete mixed bag of varying sun and wind crusts, boiler plate wind board and sastrugi. There are also many areas holding loose recrystallized snow. Overnight temperatures were in the mid 20s and the wind has been light from the southwest.

Mountain Weather: We have a storm moving through our area today into Saturday that ultimately won't do much more than leave perhaps a trace to a couple of inches of new snow. Temperatures today remain fairly warm with highs up around 30°F. It looks like wind will remain fairly light from the southwest gradually shifting northwest by tonight. The best chance for snow is late this afternoon into Saturday morning. Colder air moves in for a few days starting Saturday. Unfortunately, the long-term doesn't look great. To me it looks like a ridge of high pressure over the west will continue to be the dominant feature with some minor disturbances busting through occasionally. In other words, no significant snow storms on the horizon.
Avalanche Problem #1
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Avalanches remain a very minor to non-existent threat right now. By far, the most dangerous aspect of the snowpack is its shallow nature and the risk of hitting rocks, logs, or stumps beneath it.

Here's some longer-term speculation. The snowpack continues to slowly metamorphose into loose faceted snow. It's to the point where all this snow is almost guaranteed to act as weak layers once it is buried by more layers of new snow. Sooner or later the weather pattern will probably change and we'll see more consistent storms roll through. I'm not seeing that happen until at least mid-February. It will probably take a few storms until avalanche conditions get dangerous so maybe we start to see the danger increase later in February. My hunch is that we will be dealing with a Persistent Weak Layer avalanche problem through the end of the season.

That's a lot of speculation and weather patterns will ultimately dictate how things play out. Bottom line: anticipate avalanche conditions becoming dangerous once we start layering up the snowpack. This will be a bit difficult for people as we've been "powder starved" and when (if?) the snow comes, we are going to want to go get after it. I think you can see where desire could meet danger here.

General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.