Forecast: Salt Lake Area Mountains - Utah Avalanche Center

Forecast for the Salt Lake Area Mountains

Issued by Drew Hardesty for
Sunday, March 6, 2022

Areas of CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger exist on steep west to north to east facing aspects at the mid and upper elevations. You can trigger 1-2' deep avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer and you may be able to trigger them from a distance. Cracking and collapsing may or may not be present. A tricky MODERATE danger exists for this problem on low elevation shady aspects.

A MODERATE danger exists for new snow avalanches on all aspects and elevations this morning.

*Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision making is essential today.

Low

Moderate

Considerable

High

Extreme

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Weather and Snow

Winter has returned! ...And lightning is rippling through the valley as I write...

Overnight snow and snow-water equivalent totals and storm totals are as follows:

LCC: 6"/0.36" SWE 11"/0.67" SWE

BCC: 8"/0.5" SWE 10"/0.6" SWE

PC: 6.5"/0.4" SWE 8"/0.6" SWE

Lookout Peak accessed via upper City Creek or Emigration Canyon appears to have the most storm snow: 12"/1.10" SWE. That, and my backyard in the avenues, which picked up almost a foot overnight.

Mountain temperatures are in the mid-teens up high, the low 20s down low.

Winds are hardly a whisper...and were even calm at 11,000' for a few hours overnight. They are veering northwest and should remain light...though increasing by late afternoon.

We should see another few inches of snow this morning with possible lake effect this afternoon. Temperatures will remain as they are.

Another weak system ripples by tomorrow with a more potent storm early/mid week.

Recent Avalanches

None other some shallow natural wind pockets and sluffs in the highest elevations.

Be sure to check out all the observations HERE.

Greg Gagne's Week in Review is published and can be found HERE.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

A foot or more of snowfall is additional stress on our Jan/Feb drought layer PWL of buried facets, now buried 8-20" deep primarily on west to north to east facing aspects now at all elevations. Cracking and collapsing may or may not be evident but I don't trust this poor snow structure. I think it will be dangerous and active in localized terrain. Greg Gagne paints a good picture from his outing in upper BCC yesterday.

Damp facets were reactive in Provo at low elevations yesterday (Dave Coyne observation) around steep unsupported terrain features and my worry is that the new snow insulating these damp facets will keep them from freezing and locking up. Low elevation northerly slopes should remain on your radar for today.

Trend: steady

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

New snow instabilities will be most pronounced during any period of high snowfall rates. I would use test slopes and hand pits to see how the snow is reacting under my feet.

Trend: increasing stability

Additional Information

Forecaster's Corner

I am most suspicious of northwest to east aspects at the mid elevations but include all elevations facing west to north to east.

I think the skiing and riding will be great, but my recommendation would be to avoid all steep northwest to easterly facing aspects of all elevations until we reduce our overall uncertainty with this layering and the snowpack has had some time to adjust. (Admittedly with additional storms on the horizon, this may be awhile.). The best and safest riding conditions will be on low angle solar (southwest to southeast ) or low angle polar (northwest to northeast).

Powder frenzy often trips up our better judgement. Avalanche conditions will be dangerous in some areas today. When I have a fair bit of uncertainty, I tend to provide for wide margins of safety.

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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