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Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Dave Kelly
Issued by Dave Kelly on
Monday morning, February 24, 2025
The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE where it is likely that a human will trigger an avalanche that fails on a layer of buried facets or on a new/old snow interface up to 2' deep on west-north-east facing mid and upper elevation terrain and on upper elevation southeast facing slopes. Natural wet slab avalanches are possible in the low and mid elevations. In the Provo Region any dry snow avalanche could easily turn into a long running wet snow avalanche. Stay off of and out from underneath steep terrain especially later in the afternoon.
Lower angle shaded meadows are the best place to find soft turns and stay out of avalanche terrain right now. Start and finish early to avoid the wet snow problem.
Low
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Considerable
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Weather and Snow
Currently, under partly cloudy skies temperatures are in the high 30's °F. Winds are blowing from the southwest in the teen's gusting to the 20's MPH. There was a trace of precipitation last night in some mountain locations.
Today, look for partly cloudy skies with high clouds. Temperatures will be in the high 40's to low 50's °F, with winds blowing from the west-southwest 10 gusting to 20 MPH at the lower ridgelines and from the west 30 gusting to 40 MPH at the highest ridgelines. There is a chance of precipitation today with a freezing level hovering around 9,000' and rising through the afternoon hours.
The snow surface is worn out on many south facing aspects where you'll find a mix of crusts, damp heat affected snow in the lower elevations or wind-affected snow in the mid and higher elevation terrain. There are still soft turns to be had in protected areas out of the wind zone.
Recent Avalanches
Yesterday, we had reports of greenhousing, rollerballs and a warming snow surface in lower elevation terrain. There were reports of collapsing in mid-elevation terrain and this is a sign that the snow pack is still settling out. If you hear or feel signs of collapsing then back off of steep terrain. Observers reported damp snow below 8,500' in elevation and surprisingly warm temperatures throughout the range. There was a report of a skier triggered avalanche involving a catch and carry on Mill Canyon Peak on an east facing slope at 10,000'.
Check out all avalanches and observations HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
A variety of persistent weak layers are still being found on mid-elevation and upper elevation west-north-east facing slopes and on upper elevation southeast facing aspects. These buried weak layers are variable and make for a complex problem. Thinner, rockier spots, and areas that avalanched earlier in the season are more likely to be places where you could trigger an avalanche failing on a buried layer of facets. This is most likely what we saw on this east facing slope (9,600') on Ant Knolls in the Northern Provo Region on Saturday, February 22.
While we have removed the persistent weak layer problem from the lower elevation terrain there is still a chance of an isolated human triggered avalanche failing into buried facets near the ground. If you hear any signs of collapsing at any elevation or aspect then find a lower angle slope to travel on or underneath.
We are not done with this buried persistent weak layer quite yet and as much as the mindset in late February typically turns to open-season, it's not that type of season. Give this snowpack some time to settle into its spring coat.
Photo (Shea) of a human triggered avalanche on Ant Knolls
Avalanche Problem #2
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Most weather stations in the Provo Region have not had a refreeze since yesterday morning. The snowpack in the mid and lower elevation terrain out of the wind zone may be saturated and the chance of triggering a gouging wet snow avalanche will increase with warming temperatures. Areas with long run out zones where avalanches could start as dry snow avalanches and turn into wet snow avalanches may overrun the snow line and even people not traveling in starting zones could be susceptible to avalanches. Avoid being underneath avalanche terrain on mid and lower elevation slopes, particularly during the heat of the day.
Avalanche Problem #3
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
With increased wind speeds overnight, there will be drifting snow in mid and higher elevation terrain. Look for and avoid slopes with overhanging cornices and pillowy areas of shiny snow. If you see signs such as cracking and collapsing within the wind-drifted snow then you may be able to trigger avalanches in steep terrain (greater than 30°). Any slope involving wind-drifted snow on a buried layer of facets will be deeper and more likely to bury a human.
General Announcements
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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