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Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Dave Kelly
Issued by Dave Kelly on
Tuesday morning, April 11, 2023
Today, there will be a HIGH avalanche danger for wet avalanches. Avalanches will continue to happen naturally, and the debris will run far and stack up deep. Wet slab avalanches have the potential to be 2-5' deep and hundreds of feet wide running into areas where there is currently little to no snow, such as trailheads and onto spring hiking trails.
You will find a CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger on upper elevation north facing slopes where there is a chance for large cornices to fail, or glide cracks to release and trigger a deeper longer running avalanche.
Avoidance is key. Plan ahead for early exits and avoid being on or under sun warmed slopes.
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Avalanche Warning
What: The avalanche danger for the warning area will very quickly rise to HIGH today with daytime heating.
Where: For the mountains and foothills of Northern Utah, including the Wasatch Range...Bear River Range...Wellsville Range...Oquirrh Mountains...Stansbury Range...Cache Valley...Ogden Valley...Skyline...Uinta Mountains
Impacts: Warm temperatures and the intense sun will create widespread areas of unstable wet snow. Natural and human-triggered cornice falls and wet avalanches are likely. People should avoid being in avalanche terrain (off of and out from under slopes steeper than 30°) and stay clear of avalanche run-outs on all aspects and elevations.
Special Announcements
The final UAC report for the Upper Weber Canyon avalanche accident on March 9 has been published and is available HERE. The UAC would like to thank Park City Powder Cats for sharing information about the timeline of the accident and allowing UAC staff access to the avalanche after the incident.
Weather and Snow
This morning under clear skies the Aspen Grove temperature is 34˚F while most other weather stations are in the high 40's to the low 50's ˚F. Winds are blowing in the teens gusting to 20's MPH from the southwest at the 8,000' ridgetops and south-southeast in the teens gusting to the 20's at the 9,000' ridgetops.
For today, skies will be clear and sunny. Temperatures will be 61-69˚F, and winds will gradually increase from a south-southwest direction 25 gusting to 30 MPH at the 9,000' ridgelines and 35 gusting to 60 MPH at the 11,000' ridgelines.
Almost all mountain locations at all elevations have not seen a refreeze in over 24 hours. Clear skies overnight have partially refrozen the surface snow, but as soon as the sun peeks out it will turn mushy quickly. With continued warm temperatures there is a limited time period for safe travel and as soon as you start to sink 6-8" into the snow surface it is time to get off of and out from underneath steep terrain. The WILD CARD today is increased wind speeds which could keep indicator wet loose avalanches at bay.
Looking ahead, warm temperatures continue until a brief cold front comes through with dropping temperatures and light snow Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
Recent Avalanches
Provo is a step ahead of the Salt Lake and Ogden regions and yesterday, there were reports of large wet-slab avalanches coming close to roads and hiking trails in the Rock Canyon and Squaw Peak Road areas. An avalanche that overran an ice climb called The Fang stopped just shy of the Provo-River Bike Path. These avalanches do not care that you have switched to a a spring sport. Any summer trail or canyon below avalanche terrain is suspect.
Observers reported being able to see large avalanches on south and west facing slopes from valley locations. Photo below of a natural wet slab avalanche on west facing Cascade Ridge (Photo Mike B)
We continue to document and update avalanche observations from last week's historic avalanche cycle. Check out all avalanche observations HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
As the day warms and the temperatures rise, the water will creep down into layers of the snowpack that are seeing free water for the first time this season, creating the potential for widespread destructive wet-slab avalanches as dry snow from last week's storm and old crust/facet combinations warm up and water percolates deeper through the snowpack. Increased wind speeds overnight and throughout the day will make this a trickier problem today.
What I do know is that we have a historic amount of snow in the mountains which means that avalanches could run further and farther than anyone has seen. Some of these avalanches could and have hit roads, trail heads, and summer hiking trails low on the slopes. Avoidance is the best tactic to deal with these avalanches.
Avalanche Problem #2
Cornice
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Huge cornices have become a part of ridgelines and are becoming increasingly sensitive to warming temperatures. Cornice falls can trigger an avalanche onto the slope below and avoidance is the easiest way to manage this hazard.
Avalanche Problem #3
Gliding Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Glide avalanches are a threat this time of year, and glide cracks are starting to open up more with each passing day. Continued warm temperatures and water greasing rocky bed surfaces have opened up glide cracks throughout the range. These full-depth catastrophic avalanches could release triggering a wet slab avalanche as they take off down slope.
Because of how much snow we have had this season I would keep an eye out for glide avalanches in zones that don't normally see glide cracks. Avoidance is the key to this problem and I would avoid traveling in areas known for glide avalanches like Stairs Gulch, Broads Fork, Mill B, Mineral Fork, Mineral Slabs, (Provo), Chili Peak Slabs (Ogden) and many others.
Stay out from underneath slopes with glide cracks and you won't have issues with these types of avalanches.
General Announcements
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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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