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Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Mark Staples
Issued by Mark Staples for
Wednesday, March 6, 2019
Today there are sevearal avalanche problems to watch for. Strong southerly winds have drifted snow and formed fresh slabs that should be easily triggered today. With more snow and more wind, these slabs will make the danger CONSIDERABLE at upper elevations. As snow falls today, shallow soft slabs of new snow could produce avalanches. We can't rule out slab avalanches breaking on an old persistent weak layer near the ground at mid and upper elevations. At low elevations, the snow is already wet and rain will make wet avalanches a problem watch for. The avalanche danger at mid and lower elevations is MODERATE but could rise higher if more snow falls than is expected.
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Special Announcements
HEADS UP for ROOF AVALANCHES: Warm temperatures and rain will make the snow on many roofs unstable. Please alert your friends and family who may not normally check avalanche forecasts. Roof avalanches can be deadly especially for children. Below is a photo (D. Richards) of a roof avalanche this morning in Little Cottonwood Canyon. Notice the dog for scale.
Weather and Snow
Currently: Strong southerly winds began blowing yesterday afternoon. This morning they are averaging about 25 mph and gusting 40 mph. Much higher wind speeds are likely occurring near the top of Peaks like Timpanogos. Temperatures are relatively warm this morning. They are in the mid and upper 30s F around 8500 feet. Only an inch or two of snow had fallen as of 4 a.m.
Today: A warm, wet, and windy storm will bring 4-8 inches of dense snow today. Snowfall could be heavy at times. Temperatures should warm a bit this morning with the approaching storm. The rain-snow line will be around 7500 feet today. It should start dropping slowly as temperatures cool late this afternoon. Strong southerly winds will continue.
This week: Snowfall should continue through tonight with another 2-4 inches falling. Another storm will arrive Friday. This one will come from the northwest with much colder temperatures and lighter snow.
Recent Avalanches
Yesterday a snowmobiler triggered a slide in Caribou Basin which is near Snake Creek that was 2-3 feet deep. See the photo below. This slide is notable but seems like an outlier as we have not seen any similar avalanches. It is a good reminder why we travel with a partner, only expose one person at a time, and carry rescue gear. (photo C. Terlaga).
Guides in Cardiff Fork in Big Cottonwood yesterday intentionally triggered a fresh wind slab that was 10 inches deep, 50 feet wide, and running 400 feet vertical.
They also reported seeing a massive cornice fall in front of them in Mineral Fork. Fortunately no one was under or near it when it fell. Both of these obs are relevant to conditions in the Provo area mountains.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Strong southerly winds should have already formed shallow slabs of wind drifted snow this morning. As snow and winds continue today, these should grow in thickness and become more unstable. The best strategy is to look for signs of wind loading and avoid these fresh wind drifts.
NEW SNOW - As the new snow accumulates, avalanches may start occurring on non-wind loaded slopes. Soft slabs of new snow will be most unstable during periods of heavy snowfall. Watch for this issue at mid and upper elevations on all aspects.
CORNICES - With so much snowfall, cornices are massive. When and where cornices break is totally unpredictable; however, today's snow and wind-loading will add more weight and more stress to them which should make them more likely to break. Photo below is a photo of a cornice yesterday in the Wolverine Cirque.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The Provo mountains have had a number of large avalanche cycles in January and February with many avalanches stepping down into early season or mid-December snow layering 3-8' deep. These avalanches were predominantly in the upper elevation (or wind loaded ridgelines in the mid-elevation) north through southeast facing slopes both along the Cascade ridgeline, Timpanogos, and in the upper American Fork drainages (Mill Canyon Peak environs).
These areas that avalanched remain susceptible to continued avalanching in the upper elevations that have seen significant snow and wind. The large avalanches in the UFO Bowls north of Aspen Grove (from the 3rd week of February) did not seem to have enough of a new load yesterday but will be something to watch with additional storms this week.
Note: assessing these slopes individually requires a high degree of skill and experience and risk....and may still produce some uncertainty. A very conservative approach is required if traveling in the avalanche terrain of Provo.
Mt Nebo area: Although outside of our forecast zones, Trent and I rode along the Mt Nebo Scenic Loop yesterday and found similar conditions to areas further north. Read our full observation HERE.
Avalanche Problem #3
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Snow at low elevations is already wet from warm temperatures yesterday. Rain at low elevations could trigger loose wet avalanches today. Most people won't be spending much time in the rain, but watch for wet avalanches especially near creek bottoms or other gullies and terrain traps where even an very small wet avalanche can make a deep pile of debris.
Additional Information
General Announcements
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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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