Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Drew Hardesty
Issued by Drew Hardesty for
Saturday, March 5, 2022
The danger will be on the rise this weekend with rapidly changing conditions.
We start out at MODERATE this morning but I expect we may move toward CONSIDERABLE by late afternoon. With any spike in snowfall rates, shallow new snow avalanches on all aspects will spike as well.
Human triggered avalanches 1-2' deep on a buried persistent weak layer west to north to east facing aspects will become more likely with this additional loading this weekend. Extra caution is warranted for areas that receive the most snow.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
Join us on Wednesday, March 9th at the Broadway Theater in SLC for a special screening of the award-winning film “BURIED,” a feature-length documentary based on the events and circumstances surrounding the 1982 avalanche in Alpine Meadows, CA. The show starts at 7 pm. Purchase tickets HERE.


We issued a press release yesterday warning of a rising avalanche danger over the next several days...
Weather and Snow
A large and slow moving Pacific storm system will be churning overhead through tomorrow evening, producing widespread snowfall throughout the state. With the center of the closed circulation currently to our west, snowfall is arriving on a light southwest flow. Winds are less than 15mph from the southwest and temperatures, mercifully, are in the low to mid-20s. As of 5am, the Provo area mountains have already picked up 7"/0.65"SWE.

A fair bit of uncertainty exists with the details of this storm system, but I expect snowfall throughout the day with higher snowfall rates by early afternoon into the afternoon. <HINT: WATCH for changing conditions today> The Provo area mountains may see upwards of 10-14" by early evening. Winds will be light from the southwest with temps dropping to the low 20s.
Snowfall will continue overnight with 1-2' of snow expected by Sunday night.

We get a bit of a break early week with another series of storms possibly Tues-Thursday.
Recent Avalanches
None other than gouging into the unsupportable wet glop down low. This should start to lock up over the weekend.

Be sure to check out all the observations HERE.
Greg Gagne's Week in Review is published and can be found HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The January/February drought resulted in widespread weak, faceted snow across the northern end of the compass at mid and upper elevations. These weak faceted grains are now covered by roughly 8-16" of new snow, shallow wind drifts, and some variable crusts from the past week. Human triggered avalanches into this layering have been sporadic but they have occurred almost on a daily basis over the past week or so. Areas include Neffs, Porter Fork, White Pine, Little Water, and Mill A Gulch of BCC and generally in the mid-elevation bands that held some of the weakest snow.
With 1-2' of snowfall expected through Sunday night, these avalanches will become increasingly active and dangerous (larger and wider) in steep northerly terrain. It's possible that you will be able to trigger them from a distance. But I'll caution that it will be tricky: there is a lot of spatial variability with this layering across aspects and elevation bands and cracking and collapsing may not provide early clues to instability. This often leads to accidents.
What you can do is see for yourself: my own touring parties yesterday and on Wednesday found conditionally unstable conditions with snow tests and just elected to ride southerly aspects and low angle shady slopes. Mark explains the snow conditions and outlook below -
Avalanche Problem #2
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
New snow instabilities will be most pronounced during periods of high snowfall rates. The highest snowfall rates are expected this afternoon and into the overnight hours but you should always be aware of changing conditions and respond appropriately with more conservative terrain choices. I would anticipate shallow sluffing and soft slabs to be active on all aspects.
Additional Information
Wet avalanches in the lower elevation bands have been a concern the past few days with unsupportable isothermal conditions. Cooler temperatures should start to stabilize and lock this up, but have this on your radar if traveling through the lowest elevation bands today.
General Announcements
Who's up for some free avalanche training? Get a refresher, become better prepared for an upcoming avalanche class, or just boost your skills. Go to https://learn.kbyg.org/ and scroll down to Step 2 for a series of interactive online avalanche courses produced by the UAC.
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.