Forecast: Provo Area Mountains - Utah Avalanche Center

Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Issued by Dave Kelly on
Saturday morning, March 16, 2024

The avalanche danger is MODERATE in upper elevation terrain, where it will be possible for humans to trigger wind-drifted snow avalanches near ridgelines and on terrain features lower on the slope. With strong winds over the last few days, you may find areas of wind-drifted snow below 9,500' that will be sensitive to backcountry travelers and act more like high-elevation terrain.

Outside of the wind zone there is a LOW avalanche danger. With daytime warming there will be rollerballs, pinwheels, and small point releases potentially leading to shallow wet slab avalanches on solar aspects and the lowest elevation northerly facing terrain.

Low

Moderate

Considerable

High

Extreme

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Weather and Snow

Currently, under broken skies temperatures are in the mid-high 20's °F. Winds are blowing lightly from an easterly direction in the single digits MPH at the lower elevation weather stations and from the north-east in the mid 20's gusting to the high 20's MPH at the 8,000' ridge-lines. Downslope winds are still blowing strong at the mouths of the canyons and there is potential to see higher wind speeds and some snow being transported lower than you might expect.

Today, expect clear sunny skies. Temperatures will be 42-47 °F with a freezing level from 7,000'-8,000'. Winds will blow from an easterly direction 10 gusting to 15 MPH at the 9,000' ridge-lines and 15 gusting to 25 MPH at the 11,000' ridge-lines. No new snow is expected today. High pressure is forecast for the next five days with warm temperatures, before unsettled stormy weather returns later next week. Read more from our partners at the National Weather Service HERE.

The snow surface has taken a beating from the onslaught of easterly winds. This has led to wind drifted snow on all aspects and terrain features at upper, mid, and lower elevations. Warmer temperatures yesterday out of the wind zone affected the snow surface on south-west facing slopes and expect to find a melt-freeze crust on these aspects this morning. Sheltered terrain on the north-east facing side of the compass is still holding soft surface snow.

Photo (Bonners) showing wind affected snow on Patsy Marley which is similar to terrain in the Provo Area Mountains.

Recent Avalanches

Yesterday, there were a number of reports of wind-drifted snow avalanches throughout the Central Wasatch, which is similar to terrain in the Provo Area Mountains. A few of these involved close calls with backcountry travelers. These wind-drifted snow avalanches varied in depth and aspect which shows the spotty nature of wind deposited snow over the last few days. The video (Woody) below shows a natural dry loose avalanche as viewed from the Aspen Grove parking lot yesterday around 1000am.

Check out all recent Observations HERE.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

The easterly flow, combined with soft snow available for transport, has created soft slabs of wind-drifted snow 1'-3' deep. These will be most pronounced on leeward-facing slopes; but high winds have loaded many aspects due to swirling and changing wind directions that have loaded terrain features lower on the slope and you can't discount finding an area of wind-drifted snow below 9,500'

Look for and avoid signs of wind-drifted snow such as texture and pillow-shaped features. Approach steep terrain features that could accumulate drifting snow cautiously.

Recently formed CORNICES are extremely hazardous. Limit your exposure to ridgelines near cornices and slopes below them. A cornice fall could trigger a slab of wind-drifted snow below.

Photo of a recent wind-drifted snow avalanche on west facing Timp at 11,000'

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

With today's decreasing winds and increased temperature expect to see wet loose avalanche activity on solar aspects with daytime warming. This will be most evident in areas out of the wind zone and in steep rocky gully features facing the southerly half of the compass and at low elevation terrain. The best way to avoid this problem is to be off of sunny slopes before they start to take too much heat. Roller balls, dripping water off of rocks, and your boots or skis sinking into the surface snow are signs it's time to move to higher elevation terrain.

With warming temperatures and decreasing wind speeds, roof slides are a concern this weekend. Be aware of adults working solo outside or children playing as these are the people most susceptible to roof slides.

Photo below of late afternoon wet loose avalanches on a southeast facing slope near Aspen Grove at 7,800'

General Announcements

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

Observations and Avalanches

Backcountry Emergency Procedures