Forecast: Provo Area Mountains - Utah Avalanche Center

Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Issued by Nikki Champion on
Thursday morning, March 16, 2023

The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE at all mid and upper slopes where heavy snowfall and strong winds have created dangerous avalanche conditions. Freshly formed wind drifts, and both soft slab and dry loose avalanches within the new snow are the main avalanche problems today. The avalanche danger is MODERATE at all low-elevation slopes, which received more rain than snowfall.

Practice safe travel techniques, exposing only one person at a time, and choosing low-angle terrain with nothing steep above.

With multiple days of strong winds, and recent rainfall cornices and roof avalanches will remain a concern today.

The cooler temperatures and broken clouds should keep wet snow at bay today, but if you find yourself in steep, sunlit terrain at lower elevations, keep an eye on the snow surface. If you start seeing signs that the snow surface becoming damp and unsupportable, it's time to re-evaluate your terrain.

Low

Moderate

Considerable

High

Extreme

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Special Announcements

The UAC is currently working with the operation involved in Thursday's fatal avalanche in the Uintas to prepare a report. Please be patient as we sort out the details of this complicated incident. A preliminary report is available HERE.

Please consider donating to the spring campaign to help our team implement innovative tools and better provide you with the information you rely on.

Weather and Snow

This morning, skies are clear temperatures dropped significantly since yesterday morning, sitting in the single digits to mid-teens F. Overnight the mountains received a trace amount of snow. Bringing snow totals for the Provo area mountains between 5-8" of snow (2.0-2.5" of water - that's a lot of water). Yesterday, winds transitioned from the Southwest to the Northerly. Winds are currently blowing at speeds of 10-15 mph with gusts up into the mid-30s mph.

Today, we get a rare period of generally quiet weather. Skies will be partly cloudy, with the chance for a light snow shower this afternoon. No more than a trace amount of snowfall accumulation. Winds will remain from the Northwest, blowing 10-20 mph with gusts up to 40.

Weather remains active. Another long-duration storm is expected early next week, this potential atmospheric river event should bring a lower rain/snow line than the last two.

Recent Avalanches

Yesterday was a very active day in the backcountry, and resorts for the Provo area mountains. There was a widespread natural wet cycle in many areas, including those that don't traditionally hold snow. There was also widespread wet-loose results within the ski resorts with explosives.

One large wet slide from the southwest ridge of Mahogany Mountain at 7,600'.

There was also a close call with a roof avalanche, remember with so much snow on rooftops in mountain communities, roof avalanches will be a significant hazard as the sun warms roofs in mountain neighborhoods. Children playing and adults shoveling solo are especially vulnerable to this hazard.

Get all observations HERE.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

Due to the elevated winds that have accompanied this front, you'll likely find sensitive slabs of wind-drifted snow at the upper elevations, and maybe some mid-elevation sub-ridges as well. Winds had been primarily blowing from the south, and southwest over the last few days, but transitioned north, northwesterly yesterday. For this reason, one could find drifting on all aspects.

Look for cracking, collapsing, and rounded pillows of new snow, and avoid steep terrain where you could trigger them.

These wind-drifted snow avalanches may entrain the new snow and on steeper slopes will be more than enough to take a rider off their feet.

CORNICES are currently large and growing and may be particularly sensitive and tender during periods any periods of broken sun today. Give cornices a wide berth as they often break farther back than expected. Cornices are signs that a slope has been wind loaded and a cornice fall could trigger a larger slab of wind-drifted snow below.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

Out of the wind zone you can expect to find sensitive soft slabs of new snow and fast, long-running sluffs on all aspects upper elevations, and mid-elevation slopes that did not receive rain.

Use caution and watch for easily triggered new snow avalanches while ascending and descending steep slopes. Travel one at a time through steep terrain over 30 degrees and think about not IF you'll see a new snow avalanche, but where it might take you if swept off your feet.

Watch for signs of instability such as cracking and sluffing.

Additional Information

We strive to understand patterns or hints of patterns with the snowpack and with avalanches to make a coherent assessment...and sometimes things aren't as clean cut as we would like. Forecaster Dave Kelly put some thoughts down on paper. His essay Early Morning Pattern Hunting-What's the Problem? is worth the read.

General Announcements

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

Observations and Avalanches

Backcountry Emergency Procedures