The DJL (Dry January Layer) is buried 1-3 feet beneath the surface. This layer is responsible for 4 avalanche fatalities, several accidents, and more than 60 reported avalanches. The situation has recently become more complex, as the overlying slab has grown increasingly strong and hard. The hardness and thickness of the slab allow it to behave as a shield, making it more difficult to impact the weak layer. As the slab has strengthened, it's led to very wide avalanches that connect through and around terrain features across a slope. In this situation, the common ECT snowpack test is unreliable and often provides falsely stable results. Cracking and collapsing are unlikely to be observed. This can lead to a false sense of stability and lure people into avalanche terrain. Discipline and patience are required right now.

Recent avalanche activity is the best indication of current conditions. Both large natural and human-triggered avalanches yesterday point towards the high-consequence nature of this problem.

On Tuesday, I rode in Snake Creek near Ant Knolls. See full observation HERE.

Previous rain on snow and warm temperatures have created a saturated and unsupportable snowpack at mid and low elevations. While last night temperatures dropped below freezing for several hours and will create a crust on the snow surface, the underlying layers are still wet and loose. As daytime temperatures rise and the surface crust softens, you may be able to trigger wet snow avalanches. Low and mid-elevation north-facing aspects where persistent weak layers exist are most concerning and should be avoided during the heat of the day.

Strong west winds, combined with dense snow from Wednesday, are creating thick, stiff slabs and large cornices along upper-elevation ridges. These slabs may be stubborn to trigger but could break above you and pull into lower-angle slopes. Any wind slab triggered today has the potential to step down, resulting in a much deeper and wider avalanche that breaks on the persistent weak layer.