The DJL (Dry January Layer) is buried 1-3 feet beneath the surface. This layer is responsible for 3 avalanche fatalities, several accidents, and more than 60 reported avalanches. The situation has recently become more complex, as the overlying slab has grown increasingly strong and hard. The hardness and thickness of the slab allow it to behave as a shield, making it more difficult to impact the weak layer. As the slab has strengthened, it's led to very wide avalanches that connect through and around terrain features across a slope. In this situation, the common ECT snowpack test is unreliable and often provides falsely stable results. Cracking and collapsing are unlikely to be observed. This can lead to a false sense of stability and lure people into avalanche terrain. Discipline and patience are required right now.

Recent avalanche activity is the best indication of current conditions. Both large natural and human-triggered avalanches yesterday point towards the high-consequence nature of this problem.

On Tuesday, I rode in Snake Creek near Ant Knolls. See full observation HERE.

Warm temperatures and significant rain on snow are creating conditions for wet snow avalanches on all aspects and elevations. Yesterday, both wet loose avalanches running on the surface and wet slabs failing on the PWL occurred. Low and mid-elevation north-facing slopes are most suspect.

Photo: M. Sauer

Strong wind blowing from the west, combined with dense snow from yesterday are creating thick, stiff slabs along upper elevation ridges. These slabs may be stubborn to trigger and could break above you and pull into lower-angle slopes. Any wind slab triggered today has the potential to step down, resulting in a much deeper and wider avalanche that breaks on the persistent weak layer.