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Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Drew Hardesty
Issued by Drew Hardesty on
Wednesday morning, February 22, 2023
This morning, we start out at a CONSIDERABLE AVALANCHE DANGER on all aspects and elevations.
WITH FORECAST INCREASING WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST, THE DANGER WILL REACH HIGH.
Natural and human triggered avalanches will be very likely. Travel in and underneath steep wind drifted terrain is not recommended today.
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Weather and Snow
Moderate to heavy snowfall continues through the mountains of northern Utah.
Storm totals as of 5AM are 15-20" and upwards of 2.50" snow water equivalent. Mountain temperatures are in the mid teens. Winds are light to moderate from the north.
For today, we'll see an additional 3-6" of very low density snow. Temperatures will keep dropping into the single digits.
WINDS from the northwest are expected to INCREASE along the ridgelines, blowing 20-30mph. Higher wind speeds along the 11,000' level.
The large scale storm engulfing the intermountain west will keep us showery through tomorrow. Some clearing expected Friday but the overall weather pattern looks to remain fairly active.
Recent Avalanches
Backcountry observers yesterday triggered shallow soft slabs and long running sluffs in the new snow in the central and northern Wasatch. These soft slabs were 4-8" and up to 100' wide.
UDOT avalanche teams closed Provo Canyon for control work last night and produced good avalanches, with one running nearly 4000' down to near Provo Canyon road.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
WINDS ARE THE MAIN WILDCARD FOR TODAY. If the winds pick up as forecast, natural and human triggered avalanches will be very likely in the upper elevations. THERE IS A LOT OF SNOW TO BLOW AROUND. Pay close attention to wind transported snow and avoid steep wind drifted terrain in all elevations. Shooting cracks and sometimes audible collapses are indicators of instability.
Avalanche Problem #2
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Heavy snowfall rates, particularly in areas favored by a southwest flow, have stacked a ton of snow up in a very short period of time. This is a red flag. Test slopes and hand pits will provide some indications of how the snow is behaving. Soft slabs and loose sluffs within the new snow are likely in steep terrain.
My recommendation would be to allow the snow to settle and stabilize before getting into steep terrain.
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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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