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Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Trent Meisenheimer
Issued by Trent Meisenheimer for
Tuesday, February 19, 2019
A CONSIDERABLE DANGER exists on heavily wind loaded slopes at the mid and upper elevations. The danger is most pronounced on upper elevation northerly through easterly facing terrain. Human triggered avalanches 2-5' deep are possible and may be unsurvivable. Cornices are an issue - Exercise great caution along and underneath the heavily corniced ridgelines.
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Special Announcements
An avalanche warning has been issues for the Abajo mountains down in southern Utah. Heavy snow and strong winds have created widespread unstable snow. If you're heading south be sure to check the Moab area specific forecasts.
Weather and Snow
Under partly cloudy skies, the northerly flow is squeezing what moisture it can out of the atmosphere. In most places a trace of new snow has fallen overnight. Snow showers will linger into the afternoon before starting to clear out by mid day. The bigger headline is the cold temperatures! Upper elevation thermometers are hovering around 0°F while lower elevation trail heads are in the single digits. Winds are from the west-northwest and will continue to blow 10-15 mph with gusts into the low 20's at upper elevations today.
Recent Avalanches
There was a very large natural avalanche that released within the past 24 to 48hrs in the Provo area. This slide was 5-9' feet deep and up to 2500' feet wide, running 3,000' vertical feet to the valley floor. (PC: UDOT)
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Old drifts of wind blown snow remain a concern for today. The most likely place to trigger an old lingering wind slab will be on steep, upper elevation, north through easterly facing terrain. Wind drifted snow can be highly variable, and it's typically found on leeward slopes, in gullies, open bowls, and on mid slope breaks-overs. As always, be on the look out and avoid pillowy, rounded, hollow sounding snow. These old drifts of snow are becoming more and more stable as time goes on.
New drifts of wind blown snow: The northerly wind could drift the newly fallen snow onto lee aspects creating shallow and sensitive soft slabs in the wind effected terrain. Slope cuts and terrain management skills should be enough to reduce the risk of being caught in one of these smaller slides.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The large natural avalanche yesterday demonstrates just how dangerous the Provo mountain range is. Those without careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route finding and concervative decisions making skills should avoid ALL avlanache terrain and runout zones. Large avalanches are coming down from above and running long distances and could easily hit you in the valley bottoms. Human triggered deep slides are likely with natural avalanches possible. Traveling in or underneath avalanche terrain is NOT recommended.
Photo: Zoomed in view of the natural avalanche that was spotted yesterday.
Avalanche Problem #3
Cornice
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
CORNICES ARE ENORMOUS. Most of these are too large to intentionally drop onto a slope below. They will break back farther than you think, well back from the apex of the ridgeline. Exercise great caution along and underneath the heavily corniced ridgelines.
Additional Information
The accident reports for the four avalanche fatalities are all finalized with some first-hand accounts and worth reading. We all have something to learn so that we can get home safely to our loved ones. List of all accidents found HERE.
General Announcements
CLICK HERE FOR MORE GENERAL INFO AND FAQ
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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