Forecast: Provo Area Mountains - Utah Avalanche Center

Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Issued by Dave Kelly on
Sunday morning, February 16, 2025

The avalanche danger is HIGH on all aspects and elevations where it is very likely that you will trigger a new or wind-drifted snow avalanche failing on one of many buried weak layers. These avalanches will be deep enough to bury, injure, or kill a person and could run long distances into lower elevation terrain. This is of particular concern to ice climbers and snow-shoers who may be in the runout zones for large avalanche paths.

What makes this snowpack complex is trying to outsmart it. If I respect it and give it time then things will change. Until then, lower angle terrain has great coverage and soft surface conditions are everywhere on slopes under 30°.

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Avalanche Warning

What: The avalanche danger for the warning area is HIGH

When: In effect from 6am MST this morning to 6am MST Monday

Where: For the mountains of Utah, including the Wasatch Range, Uinta Mountains, Wasatch Plateau, Manti Skyline, the Abajos, the Tushar Range....

Impacts: Heavy snow and drifting by strong winds have created widespread areas of unstable snow and very dangerous avalanche conditions at all elevations. Natural and human-triggered avalanches are very likely. People should avoid travel in all avalanche terrain and keep out of avalanche runouts. Avoid being on or under terrain steeper than 30 degrees.

Warning Times: Sunday, February 16, 2025 - 6:00am to Monday, February 17, 2025 - 6:00am

Special Announcements

In the last two weeks we have had two avalanche fatalities. Both reports are now available on our website, February 8th's avalanche in the East Bowl of Silver Fork can be found (HERE) and the report for the February 3rd avalanche fatality on Monte Cristo (Ogden Mountains) is (HERE).

Weather and Snow

Currently, under partly cloudy skies temperatures are in the teens °F. Winds are blowing from the east-southeast in the teens gusting to the 20's at the lower ridgelines and from the west and southwest in the 20's gusting to the 40's MPH at the higher weather stations.

Today, look for partly cloudy skies with increasing clouds and a chance of a trace to-2" of snow and up to .2" of water. Temperatures will be 30-34 °F and winds will blow from the west 10 gusting to 15 MPH at the lower ridgelines and 35 gusting to 50 MPH at the higher ridgelines.

This last storm was great for our season with storm totals ranging from 18"-25" of snow and 3"-4.5" of water. Many of the weather stations doubled their snowpack with this event.

Recent Avalanches

Over the last two days, we had 6 avalanches reported to the Utah Avalanche Center from the Provo Area backcountry. Ski area and highway operations reported many more avalanches. More than one observer mentioned how in many years of traveling in that particular terrain they had never seen it slide. Check out all the great observations HERE.

Photo (Jones) of an avalanche in UFO Bowl 1

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Strong winds have created sensitive wind drifts on all aspects at the mid and upper elevations. Cornices have grown large and may break further back from ridgelines than you expect. Any avalanche involving wind-drifted snow may step down to a deeply-buried persistent weak layer. Avoid any wind-drifted slope.

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The simple explanation is we have multiple buried weak faceted layers buried under a Utah style storm and all the wishcasting in the world isn't going to make the weak layers go away right now. Avoiding avalanche terrain is the only way to avoid these avalanches. Don't travel on or underneath slopes greater than 30° in steepness that could be harboring one of our buried weak layers.

There are a number of buried weak layers in our snowpack this season, with additional snow and wind any of these layers are weak enough that they could avalanche deep enough to bury a human
We have a weak layer of sugary facets near the ground, formed in November/December and has caused many large avalanches this season. This layer is most likely to be triggered in steep, thin snowpack areas, and on repeater slopes
We have a layer of buried near surface facets that are now buried 2'–3.5' feet deep, formed during the cold weather at the end of January that is located at all aspects and elevations including mid and low elevation terrain

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Yesterday, there were reports of dry loose sloughing and of cracking and collapsing within the new snow, this is a sign of unstable conditions and if you see cracking and collapsing avoid being on or underneath steep slopes. Yesterday's storm snow will be less reactive today, but new snow this afternoon may not be. Any hint of sun today will create numerous wet loose avalanches on steep rocky slopes, gully features, and above roads and trails.

Most of the new snow avalanches that were deep enough to bury a human were running on a new/old snow interface that is most likely made up of some sort of faceted grain. Some of these instabilities will settle out quickly and others will not. Today's avalanche problem will be less in your face than yesterday.

Photo (Porter) of skier triggered avalanche in Snake Creek that was likely a new snow avalanche that failed on facets (PWL) above a crust.

General Announcements

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

Observations and Avalanches

Backcountry Emergency Procedures