Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Dave Kelly
Issued by Dave Kelly for
Sunday, November 27, 2022
UDOT Backcountry Closures for Provo Canyon
For today we have generally safe avalanche conditions.
It may be possible to trigger an area of wind-drifted snow on the leeward side of terrain features or a loose dry avalanche on steeper northerly aspects.

With snow in the forecast, expect a rising avalanche danger.
We will begin to issue daily avalanche advisories with danger ratings on Monday November 28.
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
Join the Utah Avalanche Center and the Division of Outdoor Recreation to celebrate the Fourth Annual Avalanche Awareness week, from December 4 - December 11. Click HERE to view the full list of events for the week.
Weather and Snow
The big news is that we're seeing a change in the weather pattern. Our partners at the NWS have issued a winter weather advisory from 5am Monday to 7pm Tuesday and are forecasting 6-10" of new snow for the Provo area mountains.
Under mostly cloudy skies trailhead temperatures are in the low 20's F and the higher weather stations are in the mid teens F with calm winds gusting into the single digits (mph).
For today, partly cloudy skies clearing midday. Temperatures 31-35 F. Winds at the 9000' ridgelines from the southwest 15 gusting to 25 (mph) and at the 11,000' ridgelines west 30 gusting to 45 (mph) and increasing later this evening. Chance of increasing clouds and light snow late this evening.

Backcountry travel remains generally easy with good riding conditions on lower angle north-east facing slopes. Some wind and sun damage exists in the alpine and on solar aspects.
The Provo area mountains have 1-2' of snow on the ground.
Recent observations have included reports of weak faceted surface snow which will not bond well to this next storm. Knowing which aspects hold this current surface weakness will help with future terrain selection. An older patroller told me a long time ago that today's snow surface has the potential to be tomorrow's weak layer.

Photo of weak faceted near surface facets (Torrey)
Photo of Surface Hoar from Mahogany Ridgeline (AF)
Sunrise Photo from Sundance Bear Claw Summit Web Cam
From Ogden to the central Wasatch to the Provo mountains, we have received several excellent observations. You can find them HERE. Please keep these reports coming.
Avalanche Problem #1
Normal Caution
  • Human triggered avalanches are unlikely, although you may trigger avalanches in isolated areas.
  • Watch for shallow dry loose avalanches in steep upper elevation north through east facing terrain.
  • You may be able to find an isolated pocket of wind-drifted snow in exposed, upper-elevation terrain.

Remember, even a small avalanche can be consequential in steep terrain.
General Announcements

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.