Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Drew Hardesty
Issued by Drew Hardesty for
Monday, January 29, 2024
  • A MODERATE DANGER exists on steep west to north to southeast facing slopes for triggering a 2-5' thick hard slab avalanche that fails on a persistent weak layer. Human triggered avalanches are possible and more likely in steep, thin, rocky terrain.
  • With clear skies and skyrocketing temps, the danger for wet avalanches will rise to CONSIDERABLE on all steep sunny (as well as low elevation shady) slopes. Don't overstay your welcome in the oven.
  • Last, don't be surprised to trigger new but shallow soft slabs of wind drifted snow in the highest elevations today.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
Skies are clear.
Mountain temperatures are in the mid to upper 30s.
Winds are light from the northwest except along the highest elevations where hourly averages are 25-30mph.
The ridge of high pressure moves squarely overhead today and we'll have clear skies and diminishing winds. Mountain temperatures will skyrocket again to near 40°F along the ridgelines and perhaps 50°F at the base areas and trailheads. Temperatures will be even warmer Tuesday as the ridge moves to the east and we back to a southwest flow (winds now from the southwest) ahead of a storm later in this week (Thursday eve).
Riding conditions remain excellent in the sun and wind sheltered terrain. Solar aspects and low elevation northerlies have a crust that will soften with daytime warming. Developing surface hoar may be noted in sheltered terrain.

The January thaw: Note the increasing highs and lows the last couple of days: This is the Sundance mid-mountain site in the north fork at 7500'. It's in what I call the "thermal belt": not as cold as the highest elevations and not subject to cold air pooling down low in the basins and drainages.
Recent Avalanches
With skyrocketing temps yesterday, many wet loose and a few wet slab avalanches barreled down steep solar terrain as they became wet and unstable. Woody from UDOT Provo captured some significant wet loose and WET SLAB photos on predominantly westerly facing aspects on Timp and Cascade. (pics below) In the Salt Lake mountains, a skier was caught and carried in a large avalanche that failed on our PWL from December. This was on a steep northwest facing slope on Gobblers Knob.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
With clear skies and warmer overnight temperatures, wet avalanches will start to run earlier today than yesterday, starting on east then south then west and eventually some northwest facing slopes. In steep, sustained and confined terrain, some of these wet avalanches will run fast and far and easily lead to significant debris piles. We had lots of reports of long running destructive avalanches across the range. In some areas, much more destructive wet slab avalanches may occur, from either being pried out by wet loose sluffs from above, or - in some cases - melt water percolating down to structural interfaces (density changes and/or facets and crusts).
Travel advice: If you see pinwheels and rollerballs and are finding the snow start to become unsupportable, move on to low angle terrain or cooler aspects.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Some areas of Provo have some of the weakest and potentially suspect conditions across the northern half of the state. Even though you may not hear collapsing or see cracking, you may still trigger a hard slab avalanche 2-4' thick on our weak PWL from December. I was in Provo yesterday near Timponeeke and found very weak faceted snow underneath a 3' thick hard slab. Even though my tests were not damning, I didn't trust the structure and stayed on low angle terrain. The most recent avalanche was noted last Sunday in upper AF.
General Announcements
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.