Forecast: Provo Area Mountains - Utah Avalanche Center

Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Issued by Dave Kelly on
Monday morning, January 13, 2025

The avalanche danger is MODERATE at mid and upper elevations and LOW in the lowest elevation terrain.

MODERATE with a buried persistent weak layer is different than MODERATE with other avalanche types. It will be possible for humans to trigger avalanches 2'-4' deep and up to 400' wide in thin rocky zones or in areas where avalanches have already occurred this season (repeater avalanches).

Cautious route finding and conservative decision making are essential for enjoying this most recent snow.

Low

Moderate

Considerable

High

Extreme

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Weather and Snow

Under mostly clear skies, temperatures are hovering in the single digits to low teens °F. Winds are blowing lightly from the north at most weather stations.

For today, look for mostly clear skies to start the day with increasing clouds and the chance for light snow and maybe some riming this afternoon. Temperatures will be between 18-22 °F with light winds from the north 5 gusting to 10 MPH at the lower ridgelines and 15 gusting to 20 MPH at the highest ridgelines. Winds may increase throughout the day.

Snow conditions right now are all time, and there were reports of excellent powder turns on all aspects. The sun never warmed enough yesterday to put a crust on the solar aspects (south-west) and I would imagine you can find soft surface snow most everywhere. The benefit of this is that you can find great travel on lower angle solar aspects, and it's easy to avoid the steeper terrain where the persistent weak layer may be lurking.

Recent Avalanches

There were no reports from the Provo Backcountry yesterday. Check out all avalanches and observations HERE.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

The buried weak layer of faceted snow (PWL) is still intact on many aspects. The similarities for these zones where you are likely to find the buried persistent weak layer (PWL) is that all these slopes will all have a thinner snowpack and could be places that have already avalanched this year (repeater). These repeater zones are places where I would use more caution.

The Provo Region is a tale of two snowpacks right now. The northern part of the region more closely resembles the Central Wasatch and this observation from Sean Zimmerman-Wall highlights the deeper snowpack structure in this area. The southern part of the region has much weaker snow as we found near Mt Nebo on Saturday.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

You may see shallow loose dry avalanches in the newest snow today. There is lots of new snow available for transport. With shifting winds overnight and forecasted to increase through the day today, we can expect to see shallow drifts on all aspects in upper and mid elevation terrain. Look for and avoid pillowy rounded areas of new snow and steep wind loaded slopes underneath newly formed cornices.

Additional Information

The avalanche danger scale is not linear, which means that the avalanche danger doesn't jump quickly between levels. It is a much more gradual change, and right now we are on the highest end of the MODERATE danger scale, which means that you may see travel advice that more closely matches what we would see during periods of CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger. The snowpack is solid MODERATE right now, but the human factor is always an unknown. Read more about the non-linear nature of the avalanche scale HERE.

Longtime avalanche forecaster Eric Trenbeath writes more about MODERATE danger with a buried persistent weak layer HERE.

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

Observations and Avalanches

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